This paper provides, to our knowledge, the first empirical estimate of the probability of cartel detection in Peru —a critical parameter used by the Peruvian competition authority (INDECOPI) to set cartel fines. Building on Bryant and Eckerd (1991), we calibrate a birth-and-death Markov model using the observed duration of cartels sanctioned by INDECOPI since its foundation. Our results indicate that the annual probability of detection lies between 18% and 31%, with a point estimate of 25%. This figure shall be interpreted as an upper bound, and places Peru at the higher end of international benchmarks.
