Pakistan's nuclear security regime: potential threats, risk assessment and risk management for safe future

Abstract

The nuclear industry is faced with several challenges and the first and foremost challenge is safety and security of nuclear installations (power plants), within which a deliberate terrorist attack or sabotage of a nuclear facility is the prime area of concern, yielding deadly consequences in form of release of radioactivity, contamination and causalities. Since 9/11, the growing threat of nuclear terrorism and usage of unconventional means of terrorism underscores the need to address the security vulnerabilities of civil nuclear installations and to enhance the effectiveness of security systems. To address this challenge, an effort has been made to analyze the security systems of Pakistani nuclear power reactors with the help of Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The results of probabilistic risk assessment indicate that there is a medium level of risk, with adequate effectiveness of the enacted security system, in order to prevent the possibility of a security event and to further initiate countermeasures if a potential event does occur. Based on the results of the assessment, a set of recommendations has also been suggested, aimed at reducing the calculated risk for Pakistani nuclear industry.