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How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul

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dc.contributor.author Michaels, Eva
dc.date.accessioned 2021-11-29T10:15:15Z
dc.date.issued 2022
dc.identifier.citation Michaels E. How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul. Intelligence and National Security. 2022;37(2):157-76. DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2021.1985206
dc.identifier.issn 0268-4527
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/49084
dc.description.abstract This article provides a first attempt at evaluating the performance of the German intelligence community when anticipating ISIS’ rise to power in Syria and Iraq and its reach into Europe in 2013–2014. It applies a new analytical framework for postmortem exercises after foreign policy crises, which centres on nuanced discussions of surprise and contextualised assessments of performance. This article finds evidence of partial to significant surprise among German intelligence analysts vis-à-vis four key events. Their performance was hindered by diagnostic difficulties and structural constraints, which affected their ability to identify risks related to underlying vulnerabilities in Iraq and Syria.
dc.description.sponsorship The past support of the UK Economic and Social Research Council (Grant ES/R004331/1) is gratefully acknowledged.
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Taylor & Francis
dc.relation.ispartof Intelligence and National Security. 2022;37(2):157-76. DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2021.1985206
dc.rights © This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Intelligence and National Security on 2021, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02684527.2021.1985206.
dc.subject.other Estat Islàmic (Organització)
dc.subject.other Terrorisme -- Aspectes religiosos -- Islamisme
dc.subject.other Terrorisme -- Orient Mitjà
dc.subject.other Gihad
dc.title How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.identifier.doi http://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2021.198520
dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
dc.embargo.liftdate 2023-04-18
dc.date.embargoEnd info:eu-repo/date/embargoEnd/2023-04-18


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