How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul
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- dc.contributor.author Michaels, Eva
- dc.date.accessioned 2021-11-29T10:15:15Z
- dc.date.issued 2022
- dc.description.abstract This article provides a first attempt at evaluating the performance of the German intelligence community when anticipating ISIS’ rise to power in Syria and Iraq and its reach into Europe in 2013–2014. It applies a new analytical framework for postmortem exercises after foreign policy crises, which centres on nuanced discussions of surprise and contextualised assessments of performance. This article finds evidence of partial to significant surprise among German intelligence analysts vis-à-vis four key events. Their performance was hindered by diagnostic difficulties and structural constraints, which affected their ability to identify risks related to underlying vulnerabilities in Iraq and Syria.
- dc.description.sponsorship The past support of the UK Economic and Social Research Council (Grant ES/R004331/1) is gratefully acknowledged.
- dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
- dc.identifier.citation Michaels E. How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul. Intelligence and National Security. 2022;37(2):157-76. DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2021.1985206
- dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2021.1985206
- dc.identifier.issn 0268-4527
- dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/49084
- dc.language.iso eng
- dc.publisher Taylor & Francis
- dc.relation.ispartof Intelligence and National Security. 2022;37(2):157-76
- dc.rights © This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Intelligence and National Security on 2022, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02684527.2021.1985206.
- dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
- dc.subject.other Estat Islàmic (Organització)
- dc.subject.other Terrorisme -- Aspectes religiosos -- Islamisme
- dc.subject.other Terrorisme -- Orient Mitjà
- dc.subject.other Gihad
- dc.title How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul
- dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
- dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion