e-Repositori UPF :: Grau en Estudis Internacionals d'Economia i Empresa. Treballs de fi de grau

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Anchor effects on entrepreneurial entry and risk-taking
(2025) Chen, Jiajia; Chen, Wu
It has been well documented that an individuals’ surroundings influences their entrepreneurial decisions. This paper provides a new behavioral perspective to explain the phenomenon. We focus on the university setting and argue that social reference points create anchoring effects on students and influence them on their likelihood of entrepreneurial entry and risk-taking. We conducted an empirical study with survey data collected from Spanish university students and found that a higher social anchor led to a higher likelihood of entry and risk-taking. Additionally, children of business owners had increased risk-taking due to the anchor, explaining why entrepreneurship tends to run in the family. Men and children of entrepreneurs were encouraged to enter, and men and high self-efficacy individuals took more risks when identifying their surrounding peers as entrepreneurs, explaining the prevalence of these characteristics among entrepreneurs. The general anchor was ineffective in influencing entrepreneurial decisions, highlighting the salience of social anchors. The results of the study help explain how, from a cognitive perspective, environments such as elite universities are so prolific in producing successful entrepreneurs. This provides a more comprehensive view of the origins of entrepreneurship and has implications for institutional policies to foster business creation and increase overall welfare.
Impact of Trump's 2025 tariff policies on the USD/EUR and its volatility
(2025) Fernández i Sala, Enric; González Afonso, José Antonio; Morales Castaño, Paulo Cesar; Viñas i Tarradas, Jaume
This study investigates the macroeconomic and financial effects of Donald Trump’s 2025 tariff policies on the USD/EUR exchange rate and its volatility. Following Trump’s re-election, the US administration imposed sweeping protectionist measures, triggering significant fluctuations in currency markets. Using an extended IS-LM framework—including Mundell-Fleming and Open IS-MP-PC models—the paper analyzes the theoretical mechanisms linking tariffs to exchange rate dynamics. The study identifies two key phases: a short-lived USD appreciation driven by initial market optimism, followed by a sharp depreciation due to retaliatory tariffs, heightened uncertainty, and rising risk premiums. To complement the theoretical framework, empirical analysis is conducted using time-series forecasting simulations: ARMAX-GARCH, random forests, and boosting, trained on macro-financial data from 1999 to 2025. The forecasts reveal that Trump’s tariff shock led to unusual exchange rate movements considering historical patterns, underscoring the role of expectations, political credibility, and uncertainty in shaping currency behavior. The paper concludes with a discussion on policy implications for the US, the Eurozone, and other major trade partners of the US; and the stability of the global economy.
Who benefits from inflation?
(2024) Prió Targa, Andreu
The primary objective of this project is to examine how infIation impacts different income quintiIes in Spain, utiIizing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and segregating the data into 12 main categories of goods and services. This study focuses on anaIyzing the disparities in the effects of infIation across various income groups, particuIarIy during significant economic periods such as the FinanciaI Crisis (2006-2013), the Low InfIationary Period (2013-2019), and the Covid Crisis (2019-2022). The methodoIogy invoIves extensive data coIIection from the Instituto NacionaI de Estadística (INE), incIuding monthIy CPI data and househoId expenditure surveys from 2002 to 2022. Data anaIysis was conducted using ExceI, ensuring transparency and repIicabiIity. The study empIoys Iinear regressions to quantify the sensitivity of different income quintiIes to infIation and examines the variances and spreads across these groups over time. Key findings reveaI that Iower-income househoIds are more affected by infIation, particuIarIy in essentiaI goods, whiIe higher-income househoIds experience greater infIationary effects in categories such as heaIth and education. The econometric anaIysis indicates that Iower-income groups, represented by QuintiIes 1 and 2, are notabIy more sensitive to infIation, whereas higher-income groups, for instance, QuintiIes 4 and 5, show Iess sensitivity due to their abiIity to diversify consumption and empIoy financiaI strategies. These findings aIign with existing Iiterature, which aIso indicates that Iower-income househoIds are more adverseIy affected by infIation. The study aIso highIights how economic shocks, Iike the FinanciaI and COVID crises, tend to widen the income distribution gap, increasing nequaIity, whereas Iow infIation periods heIp maintain economic equaIity. These findings underscore the importance of targeted poIicies, incIuding agiIe subsidies, competition promotion, and accurate CPI weighting, to protect vuInerabIe popuIations and promote sociaI equity. Limitations of the study incIude the soIe focus on Spain, the simpIicity of the methodoIogy compared to the compIexity of the topic, and reIiance on data from INE, which may not fuIIy capture urban consumption patterns. Future research shouId consider more diverse data sources and comparative studies across countries to enhance understanding of infIation's impact on income distribution.
Green hydrogen: an analysis of its economic viability and its impact on the Spanish economy
(2024-07) Bellvehí i Massaguer, Miquel; Piera Olivé, Judit
This research examines the future economic viability, degree of adoption and impact of green hydrogen technology. The study primarily analyzes the global cost reduction of green hydrogen production in the 2030 time horizon, and applies the findings in order to predict the degree of adoption of green hydrogen in Spain. This allows the prediction of the technology’s economic and decarbonisation impact in Spain, as well as an in-depth analysis of the key-success factors of green hydrogen applications. The methodology integrates an analysis of available literature as well as expert interviews that validate key assumptions. It employs models to estimate crucial variables such as the production cost of green hydrogen in 2030 or the total quantity of green hydrogen produced in Spain in the same time-horizon. It follows a top-down approach, some of the calculated variables being crucial for the findings of latter ones. The study suggests that the cost reductions of producing green hydrogen will be significant by 2030, but that in Spain its role will be substituting hydrogen produced through non-renewable sources, and it will still be far from unlocking its full potential in terms of impact and decarbonisation. However, more optimistic studied scenarios can be used to determine hydrogen adoption after our time-horizon.
The impact of the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) on the welfare society: a study of the special case of the digital euro
(2023) Alaminos Pardos, Paula; Andreu Smart, Elena; Martret Jané, Paula
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the introduction of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) on the well-being of society, focusing on the case of the digital Euro by the European Central Bank. The continuous evolution of money and the payment system has made CBDCs become an indispensable instrument to preserve the role of central bank money. The European Central Bank is aware of how the future of banking is related to the use of new technologies such as blockchain and the digitalization of currencies. However, the impact the digital Euro would have on society is still uncertain. Defining the welfare of society in terms of accessibility and inclusion, privacy, financial stability and legal rights and protection of citizens, the paper will conduct a qualitative analysis of CBDCs and the digital Euro, followed by a quantitative analysis, with the help of statistical models, of the effect the introduction of the digital Euro would have on the welfare of society.
Strategic plan for Ametller Origen: analysis of a successful business model and proposal to internationalize in a new market
(2023-10-17) Montlló Marcé, Maria; Vallès Topas, Sònia
The primary objective of this thesis is on the one hand, to understand how the organic industry works, from the productors and retailers point of view. On the other hand, is to provide some strategic recommendations to Ametller Origen related to its international expansion based on the quantitative and qualitative analysis made through the whole project. Additionally we have identified the following specific objectives: - Understand how consumer trends are changing day-to-day and which are the main topics that stand out that will rule the short and long-term consumption pattern models. - Learn how the vertical integration business model works, applied to the Ametller Origen, a company in the agro-food sector. - Building upon Ametller Origen unique business model and understanding which have been the key success factors for the organization and the elements that helped the company to succeed in a constantly changing environment. The motivations to choose Ametller Origen are because all our group members highly value Ametller Origen’s mission, to bring families closer to healthy and balanced diets, as well as the support they give to national producers, assuring that all the process, from the cultivation and production to the selling, is sustainably and consciously carried out. We are also interested in strategic consulting and as we identified the opportunity for Ametller Origen to expand outside the Catalan market, we decided to analyze further this possibility. As a consideration, this thesis is not intended to be a financial thesis, but we aim to provide strategic recommendations to Ametller Origen. As well, we have assumed, to facilitate the data recollection, that Ametller Origen can be considered a key player in the organic market, thus, this has been the analyzed market. Regarding the methodology, a research has been conducted to understand the whole context Ametller Origen is in, followed by a quantitative analysis of variables to assess which is the best market for internationalization, finalizing with a qualitative analysis of the organic market and its potential growth in the chosen country. At the end of the thesis, a recommendation will be released.
Financial crimes 4.0: cryptocurrency: outlaws’ most ingeniously disguised scheme
(2023-07-31) Placer Charles, Jon; Tortes Espinal, Sergi; Vilà Villegas, Abdon
The main objective of this paper is to study whether cryptocurrencies have the potential of becoming an off-the-record payment method and whether they are widely used for money laundering purposes. Furthermore, it also intends to analyse the relationship between the adoption of such innovative financial instruments and illicit activities in a predetermined sample of countries. Methods Used: In this report quantitative and qualitative analysis were combined. On the one hand, data from 12 different cryptocurrencies was collected to carry out a comparison between them and their characteristics. On the other hand, new characteristics and KPIs were analysed, this time to draw a comparison between cryptocurrencies and physical money. Finally, more data was collected of a sample of 72 countries. All this data was used to conduct a statistical regression with the program R to find correlation between the variables, and see what patterns they may show. Findings and Conclusions: After analysing the above mentioned correlations and variables, it was concluded that indeed some characteristics of cryptocurrencies enable money laundering (and the use of dirty money), such as decentralisation, stability and return. Furthermore, cryptocurrencies were also found more favourable in terms of criminality for its portability and digital nature. Finally, when each sample country’s jurisdiction was analysed it was found that, even though each country has its particularities, it should be understood that cryptocurrencies are becoming more and more common, and that the general public is accessing them with more frequency. Policymakers ought to be careful, and take them into account when updating policies that include topics such as bribery, corruption, etc.
The expansion of Goiko: national and international strategies taken to consolidate a brand
(2022-07-19) Cánovas Robles, Mireia; Cashell Múgica, Miren Fiona; Llopart Gonzalo, Andrea; Puigpelat Giné, Anna
The hospitality industry in Spain is highly competitive, especially the restaurant sector due to the saturation of the market which complicates firms’ successes. However, the gourmet hamburger chain Goiko was able to launch in the middle of an economic crisis and is currently present all over the country. The main objective of this project is to analyse the process of expansion of Goiko. To do so, both its business model and its growth strategy are assessed. The focus of the study is the country of Spain, where Goiko has its main presence, but also France, the country chosen by the company to start its internationalisation. This project also provides the insights of the globalisation strategy followed and tries to unravel the key questions and the motivation behind the decision making. To conclude, an experimental analysis is conducted to compare both Spanish and French consumers with the objective of determining the viability to follow the same expansion pattern in France as in Spain. Lastly, recommendations about how to continue with the internationalisation strategy are drawn.
The role of economic growth on environmental impact: a study of its causes, consequences, and future action to take by developed countries
(2021) Carrera Vidal, Mireia
Our planet has undergone other periods of significant environmental change before. However, the last 150 years of human activity have threatened the planet’s stability, with experts saying we have entered the Anthropocene epoch; an era in which humanity, through the massive impact of the world economy, is creating major disruptions of Earth’s physical and biological systems. The urgency for action is obvious, but are we directing our efforts to the right cause? This thesis wants to highlight the importance of addressing economic growth in the fight for the planet, establishing it as one of the main drivers of the ecological crisis. It analyses how the economic growth imperative has occupied its place in our societies, to then explore how to reconcile the relationship between growth and sustainability through different paths. The main findings establish that degrowth is the proposal with more potential to save the planet on time, and so more specific issues and points to tackle from a degrowth perspective are described at the end of the thesis, to guide societies and present further research points.
Analysis of the US macroeconomic environment and its implications towards Tesla's treasury regarding a bitcoin acquisition
(2021) Plaza Rey, Laura; Zayas Molina, Sara
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the US macroeconomic environment in the value of Tesla's treasury as well as to study the pros and cons of an alternative way to store value based on the acquisition of bitcoin, a cryptocurrency which is expected to increase its value in the near future. In a context in which factors such as an increasing cost of capital and currency risk may decrease the value of treasury if cash is maintained static, companies are seeking alternative ways to maintain or even increase the value of their treasury without losing liquidity. Bitcoin is gaining importance in society and several finance experts are debating on the possibility that bitcoin will become the new way to store value known as the digital gold. Companies such as Tesla have already acquired some bitcoin in recent times. The paper will analyze the causes that have brought Tesla to take this action and how bitcoin might be able to solve many of the inconveniences of maintaining cash static in treasury. Moreover, it will assess the impact of an earlier acquisition of bitcoin in the current Tesla’s financials. It will also be studied the expected future for the bitcoin market and which is therefore the predicted gain on acquiring bitcoin versus maintaining cash static.
The future of e-grocery. A study of the micro-fulfillment model: with a focus on the Spanish grocery market
(2021) Cañas Verdugo, Adriana; Martínez Aldeguer, Carlota; Romero Martínez, Alba; Vila Rodríguez, Irene
E-commerce sales have been growing steadily for the past two decades. Remarkably, online purchases across the grocery industry have been experiencing an enormous increase, with the coronavirus pandemic boosting, even more, these growing orders. According to a report published earlier this year by Nielsen, in May, 44% of global consumers were shopping online weekly, while only 9% were regularly doing so before the pandemic. Although this fast growth has stabilized during the last months, its impact on e-grocery commerce is unquestionable: covid-19 has contributed to the decrease of in-store purchasing, accelerating e-grocery demand, and shortening the time-frame for disruptive innovation in the supply chain. This project aims to inquire into potential logistic solutions that can solve the new challenges of this era. It will be shown that, after analyzing the different distribution strategies, the micro-fulfillment model appears to have a great future projection. Combining the speed of local delivery with the efficiencies of robotics, this feasible distribution strategy achieves to reduce the distance with customers, increasing the speed of delivery and decreasing logistic costs. After the exploration of this model's benefits and limitations, this paper presents the factors that have been found to be the drivers of micro-fulfillment in the U.S., through a deep analysis of the trends in the North American e-grocery market. Lastly, it focuses on seeking similar tendencies in the Spanish market with the goal of analyzing if these are enough for the implementation of this distribution strategy.
Analysis of motives and trends in stock splits in the Spanish stock market: do stock splits improve liquidity?
(2021) Bernadas Sigüenza, Joan; Cantera Ruiz, Víctor; Gardinetti Salazar, Alessandro; Sánchez Rico, Óscar
Stock splits represent corporate cosmetic events which should theoretically not alter the fundamentals of a company. However, extensive literature analyses the effects of stock splits on publicly traded companies’ capitalization, liquidity and ownership structure. Applying the methodology used by academic experts studying the NYSE and NASDAQ stock exchange markets, we analyze a sample of Spanish companies which undertook a split between 2001 and 2018. Our aim is to examine the effects that stock split events generate on the liquidity of publicly traded Spanish companies and compare the results with previous literature. Using as a proxy of liquidity the percentage bid-ask spread, our findings suggest that stock splits damage the liquidity of the security traded.
A study of audit opinions before and after the 2008 financial crisis: how do crises affect the reliability of financial information?
(2021) Sallent Moral, Maria; Pérez Benítez, Nerea; Valenzuela Samper, Paula
The past Global Financial Crisis caused real difficulties in business across the world, and Spain was no exception. In an environment of uncertainty and turmoil, increased focus on the reliability of financial information must be made and, in turn, on audit reports. The recent literature identifies construction and manufacturing as the most affected sectors, as well as changes of auditor as a consequence of an unfavorable audit opinion. This project aims to analyse the impact of the 2008 crisis on audit opinions by studying a sample of 320 large companies in Catalonia, and see which types of material misstatements are most common before and after the crisis and other company characteristics. Our research reveals that there are indeed more qualified opinions after the crisis than before, and that the majority of misstatements found after the crisis are related to lacking information on related parties. We find that the majority of the most affected companies are from the manufacturing sector, but there is no evidence that companies with more qualified opinions change auditor more often.
A food loss solution from a B2B perspective for the Catalan market
(2021) Carnerero Requena, Laura Maria; Carvajal López, Sara Joana; Moreno Marín, Marina
The present end-of-degree paper explores the gap on food loss initiatives currently existing in Spain. It first gives an overview of the overall situation with a theoretical framework analyzing the Spanish food loss and waste market. After that, it focuses on the food loss concept and the present situation in the country, to find that there is potential for an innovative idea to increase circularity regarding food wastage at the first stages of the food chain. Finally, with the idea that food scraps for one party can be a resource for another, it develops a business model centered in Catalonia. Finally, it shows that with the right resources and capabilities, a network of cooperation and collaboration can be established among agents at the beginning of the food chain, and that this collaboration could be facilitated through a platform aiming at connecting businesses to positively impact themselves, society and the environment.
Are greenhouse gas emissions correlated with corruption? : a study on the relation between pollution and corruption through the Kyoto Protocol participants
(2020) Iglesias Troche, Iván; Martí Trull, Neus
Current literature identifies positive correlations between pollution and corruption, ceteris paribus. This project examines this relation with data from Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index and from greenhouse gas emissions in CO2 equivalent from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). We find that this relation is stronger when taking into account the total emissions per 1000USD in GDP but weakens when we take into account the change of emissions per 1000 USD between 1990 and 2012. We also found that the country emissions decreased from 1990 to 2008, and did so more greatly as countries were less corrupt; but did not change much from 2008 to 2012, during Kyoto’s first commitment period.
Micromobility and municipal regulatory changes : the case of eCooltra
(2020) Roig Salvat, Cèlia; Salvadó Pérez, Pol Xavier; Tous Tendero, Maria Teresa
Micromobility represents an important development in shared urban mobility. However, as happens with every disruptive economic activity, regulators find themselves with the urgent need of establishing a legal framework that balances the interests of operating companies and the needs of users while protecting the citizens. This is what eCooltra is experiencing nowadays. The firm, whose activities are carried out in Barcelona and Milan, among other European cities, is seeing how it is subject to a licensing scheme in Barcelona while it finds itself with a more beneficial legal environment in Milan. These realities, and the evolution of the processes deriving from them, will impact the firm’s business plan in several parts. The main objective of this study is to understand how these regulatory environments affect the firm and what impact do they represent to key areas of its business plan. Lastly, recommendations are drawn for the firm in order to respond to the environment challenges.
Comparative effectiveness of the ARMA-GARCH over simple strategies
(2020) Sans Cipolliti, Ricardo
This End-of-Degree project is intended to assess if the combination of two different statistical models —ARMA and GARCH— can perform better than the common buy and hold strategy, as well as other simple strategies. There are two different reasons for me to write this paper. The first of them is an academic motivation to apply the studies carried out in a particular course I enrolled in, Forecasting Techniques, and test the accuracy of the models learned in the field of Finance. The second is a personal motivation to deep into the financial markets and assess the difficultness of investing in them. The project as such will firstly consist of an introduction where we will debate opposed ideas on the notion of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, then we will discuss the different types of existing analytical methods for understanding and investing in those markets and, finally, we will delve into the empirical part, where we will be using R to test the performance of all the models. In the end, we will have enough proofs to ascertain that the ARMA-GARCH outperforms the rest, yet there will be some caveats to it.
Circumventing traffic and pollution in Barcelona : why congestion pricing is preferable to a low emission zone
(2020) Sanginés-Uriarte Dooly, Joel; Trepat i Izquierdo, Adrià
As city traffic increases across the globe, congestion within cities is becoming more of an issue. Many cities have already implemented congestion charges, and the general consensus has been that it has brought about a positive impact for city populations as a whole. Considering the worrying rise in congestion - and pollution - in the city of Barcelona, and while commending the recent Zona de Baixes Emissions (Low Emission Zone) system approved by the city council to thwart this, we propose an alternative: applying a congestion charge to Barcelona. We collected data from four different cities that already implemented congestion charges: Singapore, London, Stockholm, Gothenburg. This data was used to build different linear and nonlinear regression models that were compared, and the selected model was used to forecast the congestion charge prices and their subsequent reductions in traffic. In this thesis we argue in favor of the implementation of the congestion charge based on both theoretical evidence and empirical evidence garnered through these statistical models.
The Spanish student housing market : a comparative analysis of its institutionalization process
(2019) De la Torre Cuevas, Pablo; García Thorgersen, Erik; Simón Rúa, Martín; Vázquez Echeveste, Lucía
The Spanish real estate market has been a major target of institutional investors in recent years. This paper focuses on studying the degree of institutionalization of the Spanish student housing market through the study of 4 hypothesized determinants: the disappearance of the capitalization rate premium over traditional real estate asset classes, the professionalization of the supply, the substitution of direct investment vehicles for indirect investment vehicles and the consolidation of student housing companies and investors. Moreover, it provides a comparison with the American and British student housing markets. Our findings suggest that the market is not fully institutionalized, but it is showing a positive trend towards this status.
The effects of contractual regulation on the rental housing market
(2019) Borrellas i Martín, Pol
The purpose of this paper is to determine whether restricting contractual freedom in the rental housing market is an effective mechanism to maximize social welfare. For this, the author analyzes the most significant measures enacted by the Spanish government in March 2019 and discusses their potential long- term effects. The examinations are based on principles of economic theory and empirical evidence from literature. Contractual regulation is shown to directly cause undersupply of rental housing and upward pressure to prices. Additionally, low-income tenants, who are more likely to have a precarious work and spend a larger proportion of their disposable income on housing, appear to be the most severely affected because lessors cannot effectively hedge against the higher risk this type of lessee entails. Indirect effects, such as inefficient allocation of resources, suboptimal labor mobility and discrimination of tenants are also discussed. It is found that contractual freedom, legal certainty, ease of construction and judicial efficiency are the key drivers for an efficient rental housing market, which maximizes social welfare.

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