Ambient temperature and risk of motor vehicle crashes: a countrywide analysis in Spain

Abstract

Background: Some studies have documented that cold or hot ambient temperatures increase the risk of motor vehicle crashes. However, the number of existing studies is still limited, especially for the effects of cold. Objectives: To estimate the relationship between ambient temperatures and risk of motor vehicle crashes in Spain, and to estimate the same association when restricting to those crashes with driver performance-associated factors (namely distraction, fatigue, sleepiness or disease). Methods: We used data for the period 1993-2013. We conducted a time series analysis controlling for seasonality and trends and using the distributed lag nonlinear model framework to estimate nonlinear and delayed effects of up to 7 days. Analyses were conducted at the province level and combined using multivariate meta-analysis. Results: The study included 1,908,460 motor vehicle crashes, 37% of them with associated driver performance factors. The overall analysis showed that the risk of crashes increased almost linearly with temperature. The estimates of the cumulative effect of lags 0-7 when comparing the 99th percentile and the first percentile of temperature produced a relative risk (RR) of 1.15 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11, 1.20). The estimates were slightly higher when analyses were restricted to crashes with driver performance-associated factors (RR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.30). In some provinces that reached temperatures below 0 °C, an increased risk with cold temperatures was also observed. An added effect of both cold spell and heat wave periods was found only in the analysis of crashes with driver performance-associated factors (cold spells, RR: 1.029, 95% CI: 1.005, 1.053; heat waves, RR: 1.020, 95% CI: 1.002, 1.039). Conclusions: The increase of temperature increased the risk of motor vehicle crashes in Spain. Measures aimed at reducing the influence of heat on the risk of motor vehicle crashes can have important benefits for public health.