The effect of temporal data aggregation to assess the impact of changing temperatures in Europe: an epidemiological modelling study

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  • dc.contributor.author Ballester, Joan
  • dc.contributor.author van Daalen, Kim Robin
  • dc.contributor.author Chen, Zhao-Yue
  • dc.contributor.author Achebak, Hicham
  • dc.contributor.author Antó i Boqué, Josep Maria
  • dc.contributor.author Basagaña Flores, Xavier
  • dc.contributor.author Robine, Jean-Marie
  • dc.contributor.author Herrmann, François R.
  • dc.contributor.author Tonne, Cathryn
  • dc.contributor.author Semenza, Jan C.
  • dc.contributor.author Lowe, Rachel
  • dc.date.accessioned 2024-06-18T06:36:35Z
  • dc.date.available 2024-06-18T06:36:35Z
  • dc.date.issued 2024
  • dc.description.abstract Background: Daily time-series regression models are commonly used to estimate the lagged nonlinear relation between temperature and mortality. A major impediment to this type of analysis is the restricted access to daily health records. The use of weekly and monthly data represents a possible solution unexplored to date. Methods: We temporally aggregated daily temperatures and mortality records from 147 contiguous regions in 16 European countries, representing their entire population of over 400 million people. We estimated temperature-lag-mortality relationships by using standard time-series quasi-Poisson regression models applied to daily data, and compared the results with those obtained with different degrees of temporal aggregation. Findings: We observed progressively larger differences in the epidemiological estimates with the degree of temporal data aggregation. The daily data model estimated an annual cold and heat-related mortality of 290,104 (213,745-359,636) and 39,434 (30,782-47,084) deaths, respectively, and the weekly model underestimated these numbers by 8.56% and 21.56%. Importantly, differences were systematically smaller during extreme cold and heat periods, such as the summer of 2003, with an underestimation of only 4.62% in the weekly data model. We applied this framework to infer that the heat-related mortality burden during the year 2022 in Europe may have exceeded the 70,000 deaths. Interpretation: The present work represents a first reference study validating the use of weekly time series as an approximation to the short-term effects of cold and heat on human mortality. This approach can be adopted to complement access-restricted data networks, and facilitate data access for research, translation and policy-making. Funding: The study was supported by the ERC Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT (https://www.early-adapt.eu/), and the ERC Proof-of-Concept Grants HHS-EWS and FORECAST-AIR.
  • dc.description.sponsorship JB gratefully acknowledge funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe research and innovation programmes under grant agreement No 865564 (European Research Council Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT, https://www.early-adapt.eu/), 101069213 (European Research Council Proof-of-Concept HHS-EWS) and 101123382 (European Research Council Proof-of-Concept FORECAST-AIR). JB, KvD, JMA, CT, JS and RL acknowledge funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101057131 (Horizon Europe project CATALYSE, https://catalysehorizon.eu/) and 101057554 (Horizon Europe project IDAlert, https://idalertproject.eu). CATALYSE and IDAlert are part of the EU climate change and health cluster (https://climate-health.eu). JB and XB acknowledge funding from the Ministry of Research and Universities of the Government of Catalonia (2021-SGR-01563). JB also acknowledges funding from the Swedish Research Council (FORMAS) under grant agreement No 2022-01845 (project ADATES), and from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under grant agreement No RYC2018-025446-I (programme Ramón y Cajal). ZC acknowledges support from the grant PRE2020-091985 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by European Social Fund invests in your future. HA acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101065876 (MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowship TEMP-MOMO). RL was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship. ISGlobal authors acknowledge support from the grant CEX2018-000806-S funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program.
  • dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
  • dc.identifier.citation Ballester J, van Daalen KR, Chen ZY, Achebak H, Antó JM, Basagaña X, et al. The effect of temporal data aggregation to assess the impact of changing temperatures in Europe: an epidemiological modelling study. Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2024;36:100779. DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100779
  • dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100779
  • dc.identifier.issn 2666-7762
  • dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/60500
  • dc.language.iso eng
  • dc.publisher Elsevier
  • dc.relation.ispartof Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2024;36:100779
  • dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/865564
  • dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101069213
  • dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101123382
  • dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101057131
  • dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101057554
  • dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/2PE/PRE2020-091985
  • dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101065876
  • dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/2PE/CEX2018-000806-S
  • dc.rights © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
  • dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
  • dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
  • dc.subject.keyword Climate change
  • dc.subject.keyword Cold
  • dc.subject.keyword DLNM
  • dc.subject.keyword Heat
  • dc.subject.keyword Monthly data
  • dc.subject.keyword Mortality
  • dc.subject.keyword Temperature
  • dc.subject.keyword Temporal aggregation
  • dc.subject.keyword Time series
  • dc.subject.keyword Weekly data
  • dc.title The effect of temporal data aggregation to assess the impact of changing temperatures in Europe: an epidemiological modelling study
  • dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
  • dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion