Pathways to instability: how decreasing oil prices impact political stability in petrostates – Lessons from the 1980s oil glut

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• dc.contributor.author Vlaskamp, Martijn
• dc.date.accessioned 2025-09-09T11:47:27Z
• dc.date.available 2025-09-09T11:47:27Z
• dc.date.issued 2025
• dc.description.abstract Existing research has shown a correlation between lower oil prices and political instability in oil-rich countries. This paper examines the conditions under which declining oil revenues can contribute to political instability in such countries, with a focus on the impact of the 1980s oil glut on 29 oil-rich countries. Employing Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), the study identifies three distinct pathways to political instability during this period. Each instance of political instability corresponded to a distinct causal configuration bringing together low oil abundance and high oil dependence with one specific political condition: either high clientelism, relatively high public service provision, or significant political freedom. The findings illustrate the complex interplay of factors that influence the relationship between declining oil revenues and political stability. While rooted in a historical context, the results offer insights for the future, as the global transition to renewable energy may similarly affect oil revenues, posing potential risks to political stability in oil-rich countries.en
• dc.description.sponsorship This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation program “Strategic Projects on the Ecological Transition and Digital Transition” and is part of the OILDOWN research project (Grant number: TED2021-132846 A-I00).en
• dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
• dc.identifier.citation Vlaskamp MC. Pathways to instability: how decreasing oil prices impact political stability in petrostates – Lessons from the 1980s oil glut. Energy Res Soc Sci. 2025 Sep;127:104265. DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104265
• dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2025.104265
• dc.identifier.issn 2214-6296
• dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/71175
• dc.language.iso eng
• dc.publisher Elsevier
• dc.relation.ispartof Energy Research & Social Science. 2025 Sep;127:104265
• dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/2PE/TED2021-132846 A-I00
• dc.rights © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
• dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
• dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• dc.subject.keyword Natural resourcesen
• dc.subject.keyword Oilen
• dc.subject.keyword Political stabilityen
• dc.subject.keyword Qualitative comparative analysisen
• dc.subject.keyword Renewable energy transitionen
• dc.subject.keyword Rentier statesen
• dc.title Pathways to instability: how decreasing oil prices impact political stability in petrostates – Lessons from the 1980s oil gluten
• dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
• dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion