Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening

Mostra el registre complet Registre parcial de l'ítem

• dc.contributor.author Louro, Javier
• dc.contributor.author Román, Marta
• dc.contributor.author Posso, Margarita
• dc.contributor.author Vázquez‐de las Heras, Ivonne
• dc.contributor.author Saladié, Francina
• dc.contributor.author Rodríguez Arana, Ana Maria
• dc.contributor.author Quintana, María Jesús
• dc.contributor.author Domingo Torrell, Laia
• dc.contributor.author Baré, Marisa
• dc.contributor.author Marcos-Gragera, Rafael
• dc.contributor.author Vernet-Tomás, Maria
• dc.contributor.author Sala, Maria
• dc.contributor.author Castells, Xavier
• dc.contributor.author BELE Study Group
• dc.contributor.author IRIS Study Group
• dc.contributor.author IRIS Study Group
• dc.date.accessioned 2021-07-12T06:09:02Z
• dc.date.available 2021-07-12T06:09:02Z
• dc.date.issued 2021
• dc.description.abstract Background: Several studies have proposed personalized strategies based on women's individual breast cancer risk to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening. We designed and internally validated an individualized risk prediction model for women eligible for mammography screening. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of 121,969 women aged 50 to 69 years, screened at the long-standing population-based screening program in Spain between 1995 and 2015 and followed up until 2017. We used partly conditional Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and individual risks for age, family history of breast cancer, previous benign breast disease, and previous mammographic features. We internally validated our model with the expected-to-observed ratio and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: During a mean follow-up of 7.5 years, 2,058 women were diagnosed with breast cancer. All three risk factors were strongly associated with breast cancer risk, with the highest risk being found among women with family history of breast cancer (aHR: 1.67), a proliferative benign breast disease (aHR: 3.02) and previous calcifications (aHR: 2.52). The model was well calibrated overall (expected-to-observed ratio ranging from 0.99 at 2 years to 1.02 at 20 years) but slightly overestimated the risk in women with proliferative benign breast disease. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 58.7% to 64.7%, depending of the time horizon selected. Conclusions: We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the short- and long-term risk of breast cancer in women eligible for mammography screening using information routinely reported at screening participation. The model could help to guiding individualized screening strategies aimed at improving the risk-benefit balance of mammography screening programs.
• dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
• dc.identifier.citation Louro J, Román M, Posso M, Vázquez I, Saladié F, Rodriguez-Arana A, Quintana MJ, Domingo L, Baré M, Marcos-Gragera R, Vernet-Tomas M, Sala M, Castells X; BELE and IRIS Study Groups. Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening. PLoS One. 2021;16(3):e0248930. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248930
• dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248930
• dc.identifier.issn 1932-6203
• dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/48151
• dc.language.iso eng
• dc.publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• dc.relation.ispartof PLoS One. 2021;16(3):e0248930
• dc.rights © 2021 Louro et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
• dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
• dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• dc.subject.keyword Breast cancer
• dc.subject.keyword Mammography
• dc.subject.keyword Cancer risk factors
• dc.subject.keyword Forecasting
• dc.subject.keyword Biopsy
• dc.subject.keyword Calcification
• dc.subject.keyword Medical risk factors
• dc.subject.keyword Cancer detection and diagnosis
• dc.title Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening
• dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
• dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion