The dog that didn't bark: on the effect of the Great Recession on the surge of secessionism

Cuadras Morató, Xavier; Rodon i Casarramona, Antoni

doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01419870.2018.1547410

The dog that didn't bark: on the effect of the Great Recession on the surge of secessionism

Citation

Cuadras-Morato X, Rodon T. The dog that didn't bark: on the effect of the Great Recession on the surge of secessionism. Ethn Racial Stud. 2019;42(12):2189-208. DOI: 10.1080/01419870.2018.1547410

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between the economic turmoil generated by the Great Recession and the increase of secessionism. Some authors have stressed that the Great Recession triggered changes in territorial preferences and, in the context of a conflict between the centre and the periphery, fuelled secessionism as a radical shift of the institutional setup. Nevertheless, other researchers have remarked that a recession may enhance the status quo bias and decrease the likelihood of changes. Our paper aims at contributing to this debate by analysing the case of Catalonia. We use an aggregate and an individual-level empirical design to explore the relationship between the deterioration of the economic situation and the increase of preferences for secession among the Catalan population. The findings from the analysis of our empirical models do not support the hypothesis that the effects of the Great Recession had any significant impact on political preferences in Catalonia.