Forecast skill assessment of an operational continental heat-cold-health forecasting system: New avenues for health early warning systems

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  • dc.contributor.author Quijal-Zamorano, Marcos
  • dc.contributor.author Petrova, Desislava
  • dc.contributor.author Martínez-Solanas, Èrica
  • dc.contributor.author Herrmann, François R.
  • dc.contributor.author Rodó, Xavier
  • dc.contributor.author Robine, Jean-Marie
  • dc.contributor.author Marí Dell'Olmo, Marc, 1978-
  • dc.contributor.author Achebak, Hicham
  • dc.contributor.author Ballester, Joan
  • dc.date.accessioned 2025-01-20T06:51:12Z
  • dc.date.available 2025-01-20T06:51:12Z
  • dc.date.issued 2024
  • dc.description.abstract More than 110,000 Europeans died as a result of the record-breaking temperatures of 2022 and 2023. A new generation of impact-based early warning systems, using epidemiological models to transform weather forecasts into health forecasts for targeted population subgroups, is an essential adaptation strategy to increase resilience against climate change. Here, we assessed the skill of an operational continental heat-cold-health forecasting system. We used state-of-the-art temperature-lag-mortality epidemiological models to transform bias-corrected ensemble weather forecasts into daily temperature-related mortality forecasts. We found that temperature forecasts can be used to issue skillful forecasts of temperature-related mortality. However, the forecast skill varied by season and location, and it was different for temperature and temperature-related mortality due to the use of epidemiological models. Overall, our study demonstrates and quantifies the forecast skill horizon of heat-cold-health forecasting systems, which is a necessary step toward generating trust among public health authorities and end users.
  • dc.description.sponsorship M.Q.-Z., D.P., H.A., and J.B. gratefully acknowledge funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe research and innovation programmes under grant agreement nos. 865564 (European Research Council Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT, www.early-adapt.eu/), 101069213 (European Research Council Proof-of-Concept HHS-EWS, https://forecaster.health/), and 101123382 (European Research Council Proof-of-Concept FORECAST-AIR). J.B. also acknowledges funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under grant agreement no. RYC2018-025446-I (programmeRamón y Cajal). J.-M.R. gratefully acknowledges funding from the EU Community Action Program for Public Health (grant agreement no. 2005114). H.A. acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101065876 (MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowship TEMP-MOMO). X.R. thanks support from TipESM “Exploring Tipping Points and Their Impacts Using Earth System Models,” funded by the European Union [grant agreement number: 101137673, DOI: 10.3030/101137673 (contribution no. 4)]. ISGlobal authors acknowledge support from the grant CEX2023-0001290-S funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program.
  • dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
  • dc.identifier.citation Quijal-Zamorano M, Petrova D, Martínez-Solanas È, Herrmann FR, Rodó X, Robine JM, et al. Forecast skill assessment of an operational continental heat-cold-health forecasting system: New avenues for health early warning systems. Sci Adv. 2024 Nov 15;10(46):eado5286. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ado5286
  • dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ado5286
  • dc.identifier.issn 2375-2548
  • dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/69171
  • dc.language.iso eng
  • dc.publisher American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
  • dc.relation.ispartof Sci Adv. 2024 Nov 15;10(46):eado5286
  • dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/865564
  • dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101069213
  • dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101123382
  • dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101137673
  • dc.rights This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
  • dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
  • dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
  • dc.subject.other Canvis climàtics
  • dc.title Forecast skill assessment of an operational continental heat-cold-health forecasting system: New avenues for health early warning systems
  • dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
  • dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

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Articles (Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) – Campus Mar)
Articles (Departament de Medicina i Ciències de la Vida)
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