Expected years ever married

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• dc.contributor.author Mogi, Ryohei
• dc.contributor.author Canudas-Romo, Vladimir
• dc.date.accessioned 2025-03-03T07:26:43Z
• dc.date.available 2025-03-03T07:26:43Z
• dc.date.issued 2018
• dc.description.abstract Background: In the second half of the 20th century, remarkable marriage changes were seen: a great proportion of never married population, high average age at first marriage, and large variance in first marriage timing. Although it is theoretically possible to separate these three elements, disentangling them analytically remains a challenge. Objective: This study’s goal is to answer the following questions: Which of the three effects, nonmarriage, delayed marriage, or expansion, has the most impact on nuptiality changes? How does the most influential factor differ by time periods, birth cohorts, and countries? Methods: To quantify nuptiality changes over time, we define the measure ‘expected years ever married’ (EYEM). We illustrate the use of EYEM, looking at time trends in 15 countries (six countries for cohort analysis) and decompose these trends into three components: scale (the changes in the proportion of never married – nonmarriage), location (the changes in timing of first marriage – delayed marriage), and variance (the changes in the standard deviation of first marriage age – expansion). We used population counts by sex, age, and marital status from national statistical offices and the United Nations database. Results: Results show that delayed marriage is the most influential factor on period EYEM’s changes, while nonmarriage has recently begun to contribute to the change in North and West Europe and Canada. Period and cohort analysis complement each other. Conclusions: This study introduces a new index of nuptiality and decomposes its change into the contribution of three components: scale, location, and variance. The decomposition steps presented here offer an open possibility for more elaborate parametric marriage models.en
• dc.description.sponsorship We are thankful to European Doctoral School of Demography (EDSD) and all the members of the cohort 2016–2017 for their helpful feedback and support. We appreciate also the two anonymous reviewers and the editor of Demographic Research for their constructive suggestions. The first author is part of the project Convivencia intergeneracional y cambio social y demográfico en España (CRISFAM), which has received funding from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (MINECO, National R&D&I Plan [CSO2015-64713-R]).en
• dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
• dc.identifier.citation Mogi R, Canudas-Romo V. Expected years ever married. Demogr Res. 2018 Apr 20;38:1423-56. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.47
• dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.47
• dc.identifier.issn 1435-9871
• dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/69773
• dc.language.iso eng
• dc.publisher Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
• dc.relation.ispartof Demographic Research. 2018 Apr 20;38:1423-56
• dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/1PE/CSO2015-64713-R
• dc.rights © 2018 Ryohei Mogi & Vladimir Canudas-Romo. This open-access work is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Germany (CC BY 3.0 DE), which permits use, reproduction, and distribution in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are given credit. See https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/de/legalcode
• dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
• dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/de/legalcode
• dc.subject.keyword Coale-McNeil modelen
• dc.subject.keyword Decompositionen
• dc.subject.keyword Delayed marriageen
• dc.subject.keyword Life years losten
• dc.subject.keyword Marriageen
• dc.subject.keyword Nonmarriageen
• dc.subject.keyword Nuptiality trendsen
• dc.title Expected years ever marrieden
• dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
• dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion