Changes in the effect of heat on mortality in the last 20 years in nine European cities. Results from the PHASE Project
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- dc.contributor.author De’ Donato, Francesca K.
- dc.contributor.author Leone, Michela
- dc.contributor.author Scortichini, Matteo
- dc.contributor.author De Sario, Manuela
- dc.contributor.author Katsouyanni, Klea
- dc.contributor.author Lanki, Timo
- dc.contributor.author Basagaña Flores, Xavier
- dc.contributor.author Ballester Díez, Ferran
- dc.contributor.author Åström, Christofer
- dc.contributor.author Paldy, Anna
- dc.contributor.author Pascal, Mathilde
- dc.contributor.author Gasparrini, Antoni
- dc.contributor.author Menne, Bettina
- dc.contributor.author Michelozzi, Paola
- dc.date.accessioned 2023-12-12T06:35:44Z
- dc.date.available 2023-12-12T06:35:44Z
- dc.date.issued 2015
- dc.description.abstract The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature–mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996–2002 and 2004–2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens, Rome and Paris, especially among the elderly. Furthermore, in terms of heat-attributable mortality, 985, 787 and 623 fewer deaths were estimated, respectively, in the three cities. In Helsinki and Stockholm, there is a suggestion of increased heat effect. Noteworthy is that an effect of heat was still present in the recent years in all cities, ranging from +11% to +35%. In Europe, considering the warming observed in recent decades and population ageing, effective intervention measures should be promoted across countries, especially targeting vulnerable subgroups of the population with lower adaptive resources.
- dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
- dc.identifier.citation de’ Donato F, Leone M, Scortichini M, De Sario M, Katsouyanni K, Lanki T, et al. Changes in the effect of heat on mortality in the last 20 years in nine European cities. Results from the PHASE Project. Int. J Environ Res Public Health. 2015 Dec;12(12):15567-83. DOI: 10.3390/ijerph121215006
- dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph121215006
- dc.identifier.issn 1660-4601
- dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/58493
- dc.language.iso eng
- dc.publisher MDPI
- dc.relation.ispartof International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2015 Dec;12(12):15567-83
- dc.rights © 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons by Attribution (CC-BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
- dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- dc.subject.keyword Heat
- dc.subject.keyword Mortality
- dc.subject.keyword Adaptation
- dc.subject.keyword Attributable deaths
- dc.subject.keyword Climate change
- dc.subject.keyword Heat prevention plans
- dc.title Changes in the effect of heat on mortality in the last 20 years in nine European cities. Results from the PHASE Project
- dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
- dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion