Providing information for decision making: contrasting description and simulation
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- dc.contributor.author Hogarth, Robin M.
- dc.contributor.author Soyer, Emre
- dc.date.accessioned 2024-01-23T07:20:14Z
- dc.date.available 2024-01-23T07:20:14Z
- dc.date.issued 2015
- dc.description.abstract Providing information for decision making should be like telling a story. You need to know, first, what you want to say; second, whom you are addressing; and third, how to match the message and audience. However, data presentations frequently fail to follow these simple principles. To illustrate, we focus on presentations of probabilistic information that accompany forecasts. We emphasize that the providers of such information often fail to realize that their audiences lack the statistical intuitions necessary to understand the implications of probabilistic reasoning. We therefore characterize some of these failings prior to conceptualizing different ways of informing people about the uncertainties of forecasts. We discuss and compare three types of methods: description, simulation, and mixtures of description and simulation. We conclude by identifying gaps in our knowledge on how best to communicate probabilistic information for decision making and suggest directions for future research.
- dc.description.sponsorship The authors thank Sam Savage, the editors, Gary Klein, Mitra Galesic, and an anonymous reviewer for their constructive comments. Hogarth gratefully recognizes the financial support of the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Grant ECO2012-35545).
- dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
- dc.identifier.citation Hogarth RM, Soyer E. Providing information for decision making: contrasting description and simulation. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition. 2015 Sep;4(3):221-8. DOI: 10.1016/j.jarmac.2014.01.005
- dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jarmac.2014.01.005
- dc.identifier.issn 2211-3681
- dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/58796
- dc.language.iso eng
- dc.publisher American Psychological Association (APA)
- dc.relation.ispartof Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition. 2015 Sep;4(3):221-8
- dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/3PN/ECO2012-35545
- dc.rights © 2014 Society for Applied Research in Memory and Cognition. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
- dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
- dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
- dc.subject.keyword Decision making
- dc.subject.keyword Uncertainty
- dc.subject.keyword Description
- dc.subject.keyword Experience
- dc.subject.keyword Simulation
- dc.subject.keyword Story telling
- dc.title Providing information for decision making: contrasting description and simulation
- dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
- dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion