Order matters: the effect of premarital pregnancy on second childbearing in Japan

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  • dc.contributor.author Uchikoshi, Fumiya
  • dc.contributor.author Mogi, Ryohei
  • dc.date.accessioned 2025-03-03T07:27:25Z
  • dc.date.available 2025-03-03T07:27:25Z
  • dc.date.issued 2018
  • dc.description.abstract Background: Although nonmarital childbearing is uncommon in Japan, in contrast to the trends observed in other countries, the number of premarital pregnancies has increased. While prior studies have examined the determinants of premarital pregnancy, little is known about its consequence on individuals’ subsequent childbearing. Objective: The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of premarital pregnancy on a second childbirth in Japan. Methods: We use Japanese General Social Survey Life Course Study data, which covers women ages 28–42 in 2007. We use discrete time logistic regressions to estimate the individual risk of experiencing a second childbirth. Additionally, because being pregnant before marriage occurs selectively depending on individual demographic characteristics, we attempt to balance the propensity to experience premarital pregnancy by using propensity score matching. Results: The results reveal that experiencing premarital pregnancy causes a higher likelihood of second childbirth at earlier and later ages, defined as month at risk starting from one year after the first birth. Conclusions: Our results support the life course change hypothesis. This predicts that premarital pregnancy, which is highly likely to be unintended, increases the risk of bearing a second child, possibly by relatively reducing both women’s attachment to paid employment and the opportunity cost of having a second child. Contribution: Premarital pregnancy may affect women’s subsequent life course through the influence of the strong linkage between marriage and fertility and the Japanese work culture. The results could be applicable to other East Asian countries.en
  • dc.description.sponsorship The Japanese General Social Survey 2009 Life Course Study (JGSS-2009 LCS) is designed and conducted by the JGSS Research Center at Osaka University of Commerce (Joint Usage/Research Center for Japanese General Social Surveys accredited by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology). The study was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 18J13989. The second author is part of the project Convivencia intergeneracional y cambio social y demográfico en España (CRISFAM) that has received funding from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness. National R&D&I Plan (CSO2015-64713-R). A previous version of this article was presented at the 69th Population Association of Japan Annual Meeting at Tohoku University, Student Network for Quantitative Sociological Research at the University of Tokyo, and Human Ecology Seminar at the University of Tokyo. The participants in the seminar and the session provided helpful comments on the previous version of this article. We thank Noriko Tsuya (Keio University), Kenji Kamata, Shohei Yoda (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research), Sawako Shirahase, Ryota Mugiyama, Shoko Konishi (University of Tokyo), Olga Kormush (Ochanomizu University), Albert Esteve, Daniel Devolder (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics, Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona), Bruno Arpino (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), and Sherry Zhang (University of Wisconsin–Madison) for their helpful comments and suggestions.en
  • dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
  • dc.identifier.citation Uchikoshi F, Mogi R. Order matters: the effect of premarital pregnancy on second childbearing in Japan. Demogr Res. 2018 Dec 19;39:1305-30. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2018.39.48
  • dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.39.48
  • dc.identifier.issn 1435-9871
  • dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/69774
  • dc.language.iso eng
  • dc.publisher Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
  • dc.relation.ispartof Demographic Research. 2018 Dec 19;39:1305-30
  • dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/1PE/CSO2015-64713-R
  • dc.rights © 2018 Fumiya Uchikoshi & Ryohei Mogi. This open-access work is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Germany (CC BY 3.0 DE), which permits use, reproduction, and distribution in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are given credit. See https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/de/legalcode.
  • dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
  • dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/de/legalcode
  • dc.subject.keyword Bridal pregnancyen
  • dc.subject.keyword Japanen
  • dc.subject.keyword Second birthen
  • dc.title Order matters: the effect of premarital pregnancy on second childbearing in Japanen
  • dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
  • dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

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