Ambient temperature and dengue hospitalization in Brazil: A 10-year period case time series analysis

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• dc.contributor.author Lopes, Rafael
• dc.contributor.author Basagaña Flores, Xavier
• dc.contributor.author Bastos, Leonardo S. L.
• dc.contributor.author Bozza, Fernando A.
• dc.contributor.author Ranzani, Otavio
• dc.date.accessioned 2025-02-26T07:13:08Z
• dc.date.available 2025-02-26T07:13:08Z
• dc.date.issued 2024
• dc.description.abstract Background: Dengue has an increased worldwide epidemic potential with the global rising temperature due to climate change. Heat and rainfall are known to influence seasonal patterns of dengue transmission over the course of weeks to months. However, there is a gap in knowledge about the short-term effect of heat on dengue severity. We aimed to quantify the effect of ambient temperature on dengue hospitalization risk in Brazil. Methods: Daily dengue hospitalization counts and average daily ambient temperature from 2010 to 2019 were analyzed from Brazil. We applied the case time series design combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model framework to estimate relative risk (RR) estimates for dose-response and lag-response structures for the association of temperature and dengue hospitalization. We estimate the overall dengue hospitalization RR for the whole country as well as for each of the five macroregions. Results: A total of 579,703 hospital admissions due to dengue occurred between 2010 and 2019. We observed a positive association between high temperatures and a high risk of hospitalization across the country. Under extreme heat (95th percentile of temperature), the RR was 3.47 (95% confidence interval: 2.88, 4.19) compared with minimum hospitalization risk. This association was mainly driven by an immediate effect of heat (lag 0) and was similar for the Northeast, Center-West, Southeast, and South regions, but unclear for the North. The risk was of greater magnitude among females and those aged ≥65 years. Conclusion: Short-term high temperatures are associated with an increase in the risk of hospitalization by dengue.
• dc.description.sponsorship Supported by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, Brazil (Finance Code 001 to R.L.), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Brazil (grant number: 141698/2018-7 to R.L.; grant number 420096/2023-0 to L.S.L.B.), and Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (E-26/204.520/2024 to L.S.L.B.). O.T.R. is funded by a Sara Borrell fellowship (CD19/00110) from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III. O.T.R. acknowleges support from the grant CEX2023-0001290-S funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 and from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program. The funding agencies had no role in the conceptualization of the study.
• dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
• dc.identifier.citation Lopes R, Basagaña X, Bastos LSL, Bozza FA, Ranzani OT. Ambient temperature and dengue hospitalization in Brazil: A 10-year period case time series analysis. Environ Epidemiol. 2024 Dec 30;9(1):e360. DOI: 10.1097/EE9.0000000000000360
• dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000360
• dc.identifier.issn 2474-7882
• dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/69743
• dc.language.iso eng
• dc.publisher Wolters Kluwer (LWW)
• dc.relation.ispartof Environ Epidemiol. 2024 Dec 30;9(1):e360
• dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/3PE/CEX2023-0001290-S
• dc.rights Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of The Environmental Epidemiology. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CCBY), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
• dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
• dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• dc.subject.keyword Dengue
• dc.subject.keyword Heat
• dc.subject.keyword Hospitalization
• dc.subject.keyword Temperature
• dc.title Ambient temperature and dengue hospitalization in Brazil: A 10-year period case time series analysis
• dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
• dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion