The end of social confinement and COVID-19 re-emergence risk
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- dc.contributor.author López, Leonardo Rafael
- dc.contributor.author Rodó, Xavier
- dc.date.accessioned 2021-04-27T09:46:42Z
- dc.date.available 2021-04-27T09:46:42Z
- dc.date.issued 2020
- dc.description.abstract The lack of effective pharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2 raises the possibility of COVID-19 recurrence. We explore different post-confinement scenarios by using a stochastic modified SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model that accounts for the spread of infection during the latent period and also incorporates time-decaying effects due to potential loss of acquired immunity, people's increasing awareness of social distancing and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results suggest that lockdowns should remain in place for at least 60 days to prevent epidemic growth, as well as a potentially larger second wave of SARS-CoV-2 cases occurring within months. The best-case scenario should also gradually incorporate workers in a daily proportion at most 50% higher than during the confinement period. We show that decaying immunity and particularly awareness and behaviour have 99% significant effects on both the current wave of infection and on preventing COVID-19 re-emergence. Social distancing and individual non-pharmaceutical interventions could potentially remove the need for lockdowns.
- dc.description.sponsorship Funding: the support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019 2023” Program (CEX2018 000806 S), and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program. Partial funding support for X. Rodó was received from the ISCII COVID-19 project COV20/0014, from a project by the Fundació Daniel Bravo Andreu and from HELICAL H2020 Programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 813545
- dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
- dc.identifier.citation López L, Rodó X. The end of social confinement and COVID-19 re-emergence risk. Nat Hum Behav. 2020 Jul;4(7):746-755. DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0908-8
- dc.identifier.doi https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0908-8
- dc.identifier.issn 2397-3374
- dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/47231
- dc.language.iso eng
- dc.publisher Nature Research
- dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/813545
- dc.rights © Springer Nature Publishing AG. López L, Rodó X. The end of social confinement and COVID-19 re-emergence risk. Nat Hum Behav. 2020 Jul;4(7):746-755. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0908-8
- dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
- dc.subject.other COVID-19 (Malaltia)
- dc.title The end of social confinement and COVID-19 re-emergence risk
- dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
- dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion