The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for fertility and birth outcomes: evidence from Spanish birth registers

Abstract

We examine the joint consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for fertility and birth outcomes by drawing on full population administrative data from Spain. We find a surprising improvement in birth outcomes in November and to a less extent in December 2020 (eight to nine months after the first wave of the pandemic) compared with monthly trends in the 10 previous years (2010–2019). The improvement in birth outcomes was shortly followed by a decline in fertility, which concentrated on first births, births to women without a tertiary degree, and births to young and old mothers, respectively. These findings are consistent with the idea that the pandemic selectively affected conception, which showed up first as an improvement in birth outcomes due to the missing conceptions of frail-children-to-be (preterm and low birth weight) and then as a lowered fertility rate due to the missing conception of at-term children.