Perceptions of peace in times of war: public opinion evidence from Ukraine

Abstract

Peace settlements are often an elite pact, especially in interstate conflicts, yet public support is important for the stability of peace. However, we know little about what peace means to individuals during times of war. Using the salient case of Ukraine, this article explores how citizens define peace using an original survey of 2,100 respondents, fielded in the government-controlled parts of Ukraine in August 2023, during the war. The findings show that at the baseline many people think of peace in positive and personal terms, distinct from the hegemonic view of peace through victory. Drawing on social identity theory, an experimental test shows that priming for both the in-group and the out-group moves people to peace linked to and secured by a military victory. A key driver is the threat from the enemy out-group. The findings show the importance of framing for public perceptions of peace.