Predicting immunotherapy response of advanced bladder cancer through a meta-analysis of six independent cohorts

Boll, Lilian Marie; Vázquez Montes de Oca, Sergio; Camarena, Marta E.; Castelo Valdueza, Robert; Bellmunt Molins, Joaquim, 1959-; Perera Bel, Júlia; Albà Soler, Mar

doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56462-0

Predicting immunotherapy response of advanced bladder cancer through a meta-analysis of six independent cohorts

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Boll LM, Vázquez Montes de Oca S, Camarena ME, Castelo R, Bellmunt J, Perera-Bel J, et al. Predicting immunotherapy response of advanced bladder cancer through a meta-analysis of six independent cohorts. Nat Commun. 2025 Feb 20;16(1):1213. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56462-0

Abstract

Advanced bladder cancer patients show very variable responses to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) and effective strategies to predict response are still lacking. Here we integrate mutation and gene expression data from 707 advanced bladder cancer patients treated with anti-PD-1/anti-PD-L1 to build highly accurate predictive models. We find that, in addition to tumor mutational burden (TMB), enrichment in the APOBEC mutational signature, and the abundance of pro-inflammatory macrophages, are major factors associated with the response. Paradoxically, patients with high immune infiltration do not show an overall better response. We show that this can be explained by the activation of immune suppressive mechanisms in a large portion of these patients. In the case of non-immune-infiltrated cancer subtypes, we uncover specific variables likely to be involved in the response. Our findings provide information for advancing precision medicine in patients with advanced bladder cancer treated with immunotherapy.