Local sectoral specialization in a warming world

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• dc.contributor.author Conte, Bruno
• dc.contributor.author Desmet, Klaus
• dc.contributor.author Nagy, David Krisztián
• dc.contributor.author Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban
• dc.date.accessioned 2021-10-06T09:56:01Z
• dc.date.issued 2021
• dc.description.abstract This paper quantitatively assesses the world’s changing economic geography and sectoral specialization due to global warming. It proposes a two-sector dynamic spatial growth model that incorporates the relation between economic activity, carbon emissions and temperature. The model is taken to the data at the 1° by 1° resolution for the entire world. Over a 200-year horizon, rising temperatures consistent with emissions under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 push people and economic activity northwards to Siberia, Canada and Scandinavia. Compared with a world without climate change, clusters of agricultural specialization shift from Central Africa, Brazil and India’s Ganges Valley, to Central Asia, parts of China and northern Canada. Equatorial latitudes that lose agriculture specialize more in non-agriculture but, due to their persistently low productivity, lose population. By the year 2200, predicted losses in real GDP and utility are 6% and 15%, respectively. Higher trade costs make adaptation through changes in sectoral specialization more costly, leading to less geographic concentration in agriculture and larger climate-induced migration.
• dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
• dc.identifier.citation Conte B, Desmet K, Nagy DK, Rossi-Hansberg E. Local sectoral specialization in a warming world. Journal of Economic Geography. 2021 Jul;21(4):493-530. DOI: 10.1093/jeg/lbab008
• dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbab008
• dc.identifier.issn 1468-2702
• dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/48577
• dc.language.iso eng
• dc.publisher Oxford University Press
• dc.relation.ispartof Journal of Economic Geography. 2021 Jul;21(4):493-530
• dc.rights © Oxford University Press. This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Journal of Economic Geography following peer review. The version of record Conte B, Desmet K, Nagy DK, Rossi-Hansberg E. Local sectoral specialization in a warming world. Journal of Economic Geography. 2021 Jul;21(4):493-530. DOI: 10.1093/jeg/lbab008 is available online at: https://academic.oup.com/joeg/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/jeg/lbab008/6372227?redirectedFrom=fulltext.
• dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
• dc.subject.keyword Global warming
• dc.subject.keyword Sectorial specialization
• dc.subject.keyword Trade
• dc.subject.keyword Migration
• dc.subject.keyword Geography
• dc.subject.keyword Growth
• dc.title Local sectoral specialization in a warming world
• dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
• dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion