How technological change affects regional voting patterns

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• dc.contributor.author Schöll, Nikolas
• dc.contributor.author Kurer, Thomas
• dc.date.accessioned 2023-07-10T06:55:39Z
• dc.date.available 2023-07-10T06:55:39Z
• dc.date.issued 2024
• dc.description.abstract Does technological change fuel political disruption? Drawing on fine-grained labor market data from Germany, this paper examines how technological change affects regional electorates. We first show that the well-known decline in manufacturing and routine jobs in regions with higher robot adoption or investment in information and communication technology (ICT) was more than compensated by parallel employment growth in the service sector and cognitive non-routine occupations. This change in the regional composition of the workforce has important political implications: Workers trained for these new sectors typically hold progressive political values and support progressive pro-system parties. Overall, this composition effect dominates the politically perilous direct effect of automation-induced substitution. As a result, technology-adopting regions are unlikely to turn into populist-authoritarian strongholds.
• dc.description.sponsorship Thomas Kurer acknowledges financial support from the European Union's NORFACE program (ERA-NET NORFACE 187800), from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG German Research Foundation) under Germany's Excellence Strategy EXC-2035/1-390681379 and from the University of Zurich's Research Priority Program (URPP) “Equality of Opportunity.” Nikolas Schöll acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, through the Severo Ochoa Programme for Centres of Excellence in R&D (CEX2019-000915-S).
• dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
• dc.identifier.citation Schöll N, Kurer T. How technological change affects regional voting patterns. Political Sci Res Methods. 2024;12(1):94-112. DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2022.62
• dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2022.62
• dc.identifier.issn 2049-8470
• dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/57514
• dc.language.iso eng
• dc.publisher Cambridge University Press
• dc.relation.ispartof Methods. 2024;12(1):94-112.
• dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/2PE/CEX2019-000915-S
• dc.rights © The Author(s), 2023. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
• dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
• dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• dc.subject.keyword automation
• dc.subject.keyword occupational determinants of political preferences
• dc.subject.keyword political preferences
• dc.subject.keyword robots
• dc.subject.keyword technological change
• dc.subject.keyword voters
• dc.title How technological change affects regional voting patterns
• dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
• dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion