Forecast rationality tests in the presence of instabilities, with applications to Federal Reserve and survey forecasts
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- dc.contributor.author Rossi, Barbara, 1971-ca
- dc.contributor.author Sekhposyan, Tatevikca
- dc.contributor.other Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa
- dc.date.accessioned 2017-07-26T10:50:15Z
- dc.date.available 2017-07-26T10:50:15Z
- dc.date.issued 2014-06-01
- dc.date.modified 2017-07-23T02:16:16Z
- dc.description.abstract This paper proposes a framework to implement regression-based tests of predictive ability in unstable environments, including, in particular, forecast unbiasedness and efficiency tests, commonly referred to as tests of forecast rationality. Our framework is general: it can be applied to model-based forecasts obtained either with recursive or rolling window estimation schemes, as well as to forecasts that are model-free. The proposed tests provide more evidence against forecast rationality than previously found in the Federal Reserve's Greenbook forecasts as well as survey-based private forecasts. It confirms, however, that the Federal Reserve has additional information about current and future states of the economy relative to market participants.
- dc.format.mimetype application/pdfca
- dc.identifier https://econ-papers.upf.edu/ca/paper.php?id=1426
- dc.identifier.citation Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(3), 457-610, April-May 2016
- dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/22586
- dc.language.iso eng
- dc.relation.ispartofseries Economics and Business Working Papers Series; 1426
- dc.rights L'accés als continguts d'aquest document queda condicionat a l'acceptació de les condicions d'ús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commons
- dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
- dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
- dc.subject.keyword forecasting
- dc.subject.keyword forecast rationality
- dc.subject.keyword regression-based tests of forecasting ability
- dc.subject.keyword greenbook forecasts
- dc.subject.keyword survey forecasts
- dc.subject.keyword real-time data
- dc.subject.keyword Macroeconomics and International Economics
- dc.subject.keyword Statistics, Econometrics and Quantitative Methods
- dc.title Forecast rationality tests in the presence of instabilities, with applications to Federal Reserve and survey forecastsca
- dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper