Economic shocks and civil conflict: A comment

Citació

  • American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3 (4), 215-227, 2011

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Descripció

  • Resum

    Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t-1 and t-2. I argue that this finding is driven by a positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t-2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, one might have expected MSS s finding to reflect a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t-1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall.

  • Director i departament

    Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa

  • Col·leccions

    Economics and Business Working Papers Series
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