International commodity prices and civil war outbreak: new evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond

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• dc.contributor.author Ciccone, Antonioca
• dc.contributor.other Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa
• dc.date.accessioned 2018-02-14T15:30:04Z
• dc.date.available 2018-02-14T15:30:04Z
• dc.date.issued 2018-01-02
• dc.date.modified 2018-02-14T15:29:38Z
• dc.description.abstract A new dataset by Bazzi and Blattman (2014) allows examining the effects of international commodity prices on the risk of civil war outbreak with more comprehensive data. I find that international commodity price downturns sparked civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Another finding with the new dataset is that commodity price downturns also sparked civil wars beyond Sub-Saharan Africa since 1980. Effects are sizable relative to the baseline risk of civil war outbreak. My conclusions contrast with those of Bazzi and Blattman, who argue that the new dataset rejects that commodity price downturns cause civil wars. The reason is that I calculate commodity price shocks using time-invariant (fixed) export shares as commodity weights. Bazzi and Blattman also calculate commodity price shocks using export shares as commodity weights but but the exports shares they use are time-varying. Using time-invariant export shares as commodity weights ensures that time variation in price shocks solely re ects changes in international commodity prices. Price shocks based on time-varying export shares partly re ect (possibly endogenous) changes in the quantity and variety of countries' exports, which jeopardizes causal estimation.
• dc.format.mimetype application/pdfca
• dc.identifier https://econ-papers.upf.edu/ca/paper.php?id=1596
• dc.identifier.citation
• dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/33891
• dc.language.iso eng
• dc.relation.ispartofseries Economics and Business Working Papers Series; 1596
• dc.rights L'accés als continguts d'aquest document queda condicionat a l'acceptació de les condicions d'ús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commons
• dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
• dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
• dc.subject.keyword civil wars
• dc.subject.keyword commodity price downturns
• dc.subject.keyword Macroeconomics and International Economics
• dc.title International commodity prices and civil war outbreak: new evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and beyondca
• dc.title.alternative
• dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper