Evaluating the economic cost of coastal flooding
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- dc.contributor.author Desmet, Klaus
- dc.contributor.author Kopp, Robert E.
- dc.contributor.author Kulp, Scott A.
- dc.contributor.author Nagy, David Krisztián
- dc.contributor.author Oppenheimer, Michael
- dc.contributor.author Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban
- dc.contributor.author Strauss, Benjamin H.
- dc.contributor.other Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa
- dc.date.accessioned 2024-11-14T10:09:49Z
- dc.date.available 2024-11-14T10:09:49Z
- dc.date.issued 2019-09-01
- dc.date.modified 2024-11-14T10:06:56Z
- dc.description.abstract Sea-level rise and ensuing permanent coastal inundation will cause spatial shifts in population and economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a highly spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy that accounts for the dynamics of migration, trade, and innovation, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea-level changes under different emissions scenarios. Under an intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by an average of 0.19% in present value terms, with welfare declining by 0.24% as people move to places with less attractive amenities. By the year 2200 a projected 1.46% of world population will be displaced. Losses in many coastal localities are more than an order of magnitude larger, with some low-lying urban areas particularly hard hit. When ignoring the dynamic economic adaptation of investment and migration to flooding, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11% to 4.5%. This shows the importance of including dynamic adaptation in future loss models.
- dc.format.mimetype application/pdf*
- dc.identifier https://econ-papers.upf.edu/ca/paper.php?id=1709
- dc.identifier.citation American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13(2), 2021, 444-486
- dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/44733
- dc.language.iso eng
- dc.relation.ispartofseries Economics and Business Working Papers Series; 1709
- dc.rights L'accés als continguts d'aquest document queda condicionat a l'acceptació de les condicions d'ús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commons
- dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
- dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
- dc.subject.keyword quantitative economic geography
- dc.subject.keyword economic growth and development
- dc.subject.keyword climate change
- dc.subject.keyword Macroeconomics and International Economics
- dc.title Evaluating the economic cost of coastal flooding
- dc.title.alternative
- dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper