Entrepreneurial success and failure: Confidence and fallible judgement
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- dc.contributor.author Hogarth, Robin M.ca
- dc.contributor.author Karelaia, Nataliaca
- dc.contributor.other Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa
- dc.date.accessioned 2017-07-26T10:50:47Z
- dc.date.available 2017-07-26T10:50:47Z
- dc.date.issued 2008-12-01
- dc.date.modified 2017-07-23T02:12:19Z
- dc.description.abstract Excess entry or the high failure rate of market-entry decisions is often attributed to overconfidence exhibited by entreprene urs. We show analytically that whereas excess entry is an inevitable consequence of imperfect assessments of entrepreneurial skill, it does not imply overconfidence. Judgmental fallibility leads to excess entry even when everyone is underconfident. Self-selection implies greater confidence (but not necessarily overconfidence) among those who start new businesses than those who do not and among successful entrants than failures. Our results question claims that entrepreneurs are overconfident and emphasize the need to understand the role of judgmental fallibility in producing economic outcomes.
- dc.format.mimetype application/pdfca
- dc.identifier https://econ-papers.upf.edu/ca/paper.php?id=1130
- dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/4586
- dc.language.iso eng
- dc.relation.ispartofseries Economics and Business Working Papers Series; 1130
- dc.rights L'accés als continguts d'aquest document queda condicionat a l'acceptació de les condicions d'ús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commons
- dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
- dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
- dc.subject.keyword excess entry
- dc.subject.keyword fallible judgment
- dc.subject.keyword overconfidence
- dc.subject.keyword skill uncertainty
- dc.subject.keyword entrepreneurship
- dc.subject.keyword leex
- dc.subject.keyword Behavioral and Experimental Economics
- dc.title Entrepreneurial success and failure: Confidence and fallible judgementca
- dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper