How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul

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Michaels E. How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul. Intelligence and National Security. 2022;37(2):157-76. DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2021.1985206

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