Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience

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• dc.contributor.author Alvarenga, António
• dc.contributor.author Bana E Costa, Carlos A.
• dc.contributor.author Borrell i Thió, Carme
• dc.contributor.author Lopes Ferreira, Pedro
• dc.contributor.author Freitas, Ângela
• dc.contributor.author Freitas, Liliana
• dc.contributor.author Oliveira, Mónica
• dc.contributor.author Rodrigues, Teresa C.
• dc.contributor.author Santana, Paula
• dc.contributor.author Lopes Santos, Maria
• dc.contributor.author Vieira, Ana
• dc.date.accessioned 2021-03-05T07:44:42Z
• dc.date.available 2021-03-05T07:44:42Z
• dc.date.issued 2019
• dc.description.abstract Background: Health inequalities have been consistently reported across and within European countries and continue to pose major challenges to policy-making. The development of scenarios regarding what could affect population health (PH) inequalities across Europe in the future is considered critical. Scenarios can help policy-makers prepare and better cope with fast evolving challenges. Objective: This paper describes the three 2030 time-horizon scenarios developed under the EURO-HEALTHY project, depicting the key factors that may affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions. Methods: A three-stage socio-technical approach was applied: i) identification of drivers (key factors expected to affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions until 2030) - this stage engaged in a Web-Delphi process a multidisciplinary panel of 51 experts and other stakeholders representing the different perspectives regarding PH inequalities; ii) generation of scenario structures - different drivers' configurations (i.e. their hypotheses for evolution) were organized into coherent scenario structures using the Extreme-World Method; and iii) validation of scenario structures and generation of scenario narratives. Stages ii) and iii) were conducted in two workshops with a strategic group of 13 experts with a wide view about PH inequalities. The scenario narratives were elaborated with the participants' insights from both the Web-Delphi process and the two workshops, together with the use of evidence (both current and future-oriented) on the different areas within the PH domain. Results: Three scenarios were developed for the evolution of PH inequalities in Europe until 2030: 'Failing Europe' (worst-case but plausible picture of the future), 'Sustainable Prosperity' (best-case but plausible picture of the future), and an interim scenario 'Being Stuck' depicting a 'to the best of our knowledge' evolution. These scenarios show the extent to which a combination of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental drivers shape future health inequalities, providing information for European policy-makers to reflect upon whether and how to design robust policy solutions to tackle PH inequalities. Conclusions: The EURO-HEALTHY scenarios were designed to inform both policy design and appraisal. They broaden the scope, create awareness and generate insights regarding the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions.
• dc.description.sponsorship This work is part of the EURO-HEALTHY project (Shaping EUROpean policies to promote HEALTH equitY) and it was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [Grant Agreement No 643398; 2015-2017].
• dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
• dc.identifier.citation Alvarenga A, Bana E Costa CA, Borrell C, Ferreira PL, Freitas Â, Freitas L, Oliveira MD, Rodrigues TC, Santana P, Lopes Santos M, Vieira ACL. Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience. Int J Equity Health. 2019; 18(1):100. DOI: 10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8
• dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8
• dc.identifier.issn 1475-9276
• dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/46672
• dc.language.iso eng
• dc.publisher BioMed Central
• dc.relation.ispartof Int J Equity Health. 2019; 18(1):100
• dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/643398
• dc.rights © The Author(s). 2019 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
• dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
• dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• dc.subject.keyword Delphi method
• dc.subject.keyword Foresight
• dc.subject.keyword Health inequalities
• dc.subject.keyword Participatory approach
• dc.subject.keyword Policies
• dc.subject.keyword Population Health
• dc.subject.keyword Scenarios
• dc.subject.keyword Socio-technical approach
• dc.subject.keyword Stakeholders
• dc.title Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience
• dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
• dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion