The role of pensions: exploring the link between pension funds, monetary policy and economic performance: a case study of the Netherlands

Matthíasardóttir, Diljá; Zarges, Lara

The role of pensions: exploring the link between pension funds, monetary policy and economic performance: a case study of the Netherlands

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Matthíasardóttir, D, Zarges, L. The role of pensions: exploring the link between pension funds, monetary policy and economic performance: a case study of the Netherlands. 2021. handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10230/49133

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Abstract

Shocks to the European Central bank’s unconventional monetary policy trigger Dutch pension funds to search for yield: A structural VAR analysis shows that the pension funds reallocate their asset holdings from bonds towards equity and alternatives. The latter suggests the existence of a portfolio rebalancing channel through institutional investors in the euro area. Moreover, we emphasize that the portfolio reallocation induced by monetary policy has increased the overall riskiness of the funds’ investments, which has potentially systemic risk implications. As the Dutch pension sector has evolved into a key player in financial markets, we additionally investigate the domestic real effects of a further increase in its size. In this context a second SVAR approach shows that an expansive shock to total asset holdings boosts economic growth. Nevertheless this link also works in the reverse direction and hence points out the potential problems of a sudden dissaving of pension funds. Our case study is restricted to the Netherlands, where the pension sector accounts for almost 200% of GDP, which is an exceptional case in the euro area. However, our results are of general interest for the aging societies in Europe as they improve the understanding of pension funds’ potential importance for economic policy in a period of demographic change.

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Treball fi de màster de: Master's Degree in Specialized Economic Analysis. Curs 2020-2021
Directors: Christopher Busch, Luca Gambetti i Hugo Rodriguez