Regulating disinformation: poll embargo and electoral coordination

Lago Peñas, Ignacio; Guinjoan Cesena, Marc; Bermúdez Torres, Sandra

doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfv036

Regulating disinformation: poll embargo and electoral coordination

Citation

Lago I, Guinjoan M, Bermúdez S. Regulating disinformation: poll embargo and electoral coordination. Public Opin Q. 2015 Sep 2;79(4):932-51. DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfv036

Abstract

This article examines the political consequences of pre–Election Day poll restrictions. Our argument is that laws forbidding the publication of polling results hamper voters’ electoral coordination when the information environment is more complex. We rely on aggregated data from elections in 46 democracies to show that the number of wasted votes increases in countries with highly fragmented party systems when pre–Election Day polls are restricted. This evidence is supported with individual data from Internet surveys conducted by the Making Electoral Democracy Work project during election campaigns in Canada and Spain.