Harnessing big data news media for conflict prediction and anticipatory decision-making

Chaves, Giovanna; Philipp, Margherita; Quiñones, Luis

Harnessing big data news media for conflict prediction and anticipatory decision-making

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Chaves, G, Philipp, M, Quiñones, L. Harnessing big data news media for conflict prediction and anticipatory decision-making. 2023. handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10230/58367

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Abstract

Advances in data and computing techniques have opened possibilities for real-time and cost-efficient conflict prediction and early warning capabilities, with news-based data being utilized to generate relevant forecasts. This Master’s thesis explores the use of big data news media for conflict prediction and anticipatory decision-making, with a focus on harnessing the Global Database of Events, Language and Tone (GDELT). We investigate the effectiveness of using GDELT events to predict conflict at the country-level by extracting relevant features and comparing the performance of text-based models with different target definitions and time horizons. The results show that GDELT-based features perform well in conflict prediction, particularly in tree-based and LSTM models, indicating the value of using text data for capturing patterns and providing insights into potential conflict events.