Detaching data: an exploration of the trend in the amount of events prior to conflict onset

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between real-world events and conflict onset, focusing on the quantity and pattern of these events over time. As the generation and collection of data has seen a significant increase in recent years, understanding the potential of real-world event data is crucial aiding decision-making during conflict. The initial analysis reveals a substantial increase in the number of such events leading up to conflict, despite periodic fluctuations over the years. Moreover, the research identifies a greater occurrence of these events in the days preceding conflict compared to regular days. Importantly, the study also establishes a significant positive relationship between the interaction of population and GDP and the frequency of events both prior to conflict and during regular days. These findings suggest that shifts in population and GDP have a direct impact on the volume of real-world events. By shedding light on these patterns, this research can aid in the development of more informed decision-making strategies during conflict situations.