On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge
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- dc.contributor.author Hogarth, Robin M.ca
- dc.contributor.author Karelaia, Nataliaca
- dc.contributor.other Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa
- dc.date.accessioned 2017-07-26T12:07:54Z
- dc.date.available 2017-07-26T12:07:54Z
- dc.date.issued 2006-06-01
- dc.date.modified 2017-07-23T02:10:38Z
- dc.description.abstract Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human and heuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off between linear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latter are simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when and which heuristic to employ.
- dc.format.mimetype application/pdfca
- dc.identifier https://econ-papers.upf.edu/ca/paper.php?id=974
- dc.identifier.citation Psychological Review, 114 (3), 733-758, 2007
- dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/1089
- dc.language.iso eng
- dc.relation.ispartofseries Economics and Business Working Papers Series; 974
- dc.rights L'accés als continguts d'aquest document queda condicionat a l'acceptació de les condicions d'ús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commons
- dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
- dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
- dc.subject.keyword decision making; heuristics; linear models; lens model; judgmental biases
- dc.subject.keyword Behavioral and Experimental Economics
- dc.title On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledgeca
- dc.title.alternative Heuristic and linear models of judgment: Matching rules and environments
- dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper