Evaluating the economic cost of coastal flooding

Desmet, Klaus; Kopp, Robert E.; Kulp, Scott A.; Nagy, David Krisztián; Oppenheimer, Michael; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban; Strauss, Benjamin H.

doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180366

Evaluating the economic cost of coastal flooding

Citació

Desmet K, Kopp RE, Kulp SA, Nagy DK, Oppenheimer M, Rossi-Hansberg E, Strauss BH. Evaluating the economic cost of coastal flooding. American Economic Journal: macroeconomics. 202;13(2):444–86. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180366

Resum

Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent in present value terms. By the year 2200, a projected 1.46 percent of the population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11 percent to 4.5 percent. (JEL E23, F01, Q54, Q56)