Local sectoral specialization in a warming world
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- dc.contributor.author Conte, Bruno
- dc.contributor.author Desmet, Klaus
- dc.contributor.author Nagy, David Krisztián
- dc.contributor.author Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban
- dc.contributor.other Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa
- dc.date.accessioned 2024-11-14T10:09:53Z
- dc.date.available 2024-11-14T10:09:53Z
- dc.date.issued 2020-11-23
- dc.date.modified 2024-11-14T10:07:23Z
- dc.description.abstract This paper quantitatively assesses the world's changing economic geography and sectoral specialization due to global warming. It proposes a two-sector dynamic spatial growth model that incorporates the relation between economic activity, carbon emissions, and temperature. The model is taken to the data at the 1 degree by 1 degree resolution for the entire world. Over a 200-year horizon, rising temperatures consistent with emissions under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 push people and economic activity northwards to Siberia, Canada, and Scandinavia. Compared to a world without climate change, clusters of agricultural specialization shift from Central Africa, Brazil, and India's Ganges Valley, to Central Asia, parts of China and northern Canada. Equatorial latitudes that lose agriculture specialize more in nonagriculture but, due to their persistently low productivity, lose population. By the year 2200, predicted losses in real GDP and utility are 6% and 15%, respectively. Higher trade costs make adaptation through changes in sectoral specialization more costly, leading to less geographic concentration in agriculture and larger climate-induced migration.
- dc.format.mimetype application/pdf*
- dc.identifier https://econ-papers.upf.edu/ca/paper.php?id=1754
- dc.identifier.citation
- dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/68633
- dc.language.iso eng
- dc.relation.ispartofseries Economics and Business Working Papers Series; 1754
- dc.rights L'accés als continguts d'aquest document queda condicionat a l'acceptació de les condicions d'ús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commons
- dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
- dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
- dc.subject.keyword
- dc.subject.keyword Macroeconomics and International Economics
- dc.title Local sectoral specialization in a warming world
- dc.title.alternative
- dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper