Agent-based simulation of holocene monsoon precipitation patterns and Hunter-Gatherer population dynamics in semi-arid environments

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• dc.contributor.author Balbo, Andrea Luca
• dc.contributor.author Rubio-Campillo, Xavier
• dc.contributor.author Rondelli, Bernardo
• dc.contributor.author Ramírez, Miquel
• dc.contributor.author Lancelotti, Carla
• dc.contributor.author Torrano, Alexis
• dc.contributor.author Salpeteur, Matthieu
• dc.contributor.author Lipovetzky, Nir
• dc.contributor.author Reyes-García, Victoria
• dc.contributor.author Montañola, Cristina
• dc.contributor.author Madella, Marco
• dc.date.accessioned 2019-01-08T10:18:17Z
• dc.date.available 2019-01-08T10:18:17Z
• dc.date.issued 2014
• dc.description.abstract Based on archaeological evidence from Kutch-Saurashtra (N Gujarat, NW India), we use agent-based modelling (ABM) to explore the persistence of hunter-gatherer (HG) groups in semi-arid environments in the mid and late Holocene. Agents interact within a realistic semi-arid environment dominated by the monsoon. Precipitation trends are modelled from instrumental records (1871–2008) calibrated with existing models for the Asian monsoon in the Holocene (c. 12 ka–present). Experiments aim at exploring dependencies between population dynamics and climate-driven environmental change (in terms of resource availability) for precipitation patterns at the local, regional and continental scales. Resources are distributed across a simplified ground model. Average yearly precipitation (AYP, i.e. mean) and variance in yearly precipitation (VYP, i.e. standard deviation) are the main parameters affecting resource availability in the simulations. We assess the effects of environmental change on HG populations at different timescales: (1) patterns of seasonal (inter-annual) resource availability, (2) effects of changes in mean precipitation trends over the long (Pleistocene–Holocene) and the mid (Holocene, millennial) periods, and (3) effects of intra-annual precipitation variability, i.e. changes in standard deviation from mean precipitation trends over the short period (annual to decadal). Simulations show that (1) strong seasonality is coherent with the persistence of HG populations in India, independently of the geographical scale of the precipitation models, (2) changes in AYP over the mid period (Holocene) are not sufficient to explain the disappearance of HG populations in Kutch-Saurashtra (K-S) 4 ka and (3) precipitation variability (VYP) over the short period (annual to decadal) is the main parameter affecting population performance and overall ecosystem dynamics. To date, sufficiently refined palaeoclimatic records do not exist for the study area, but higher VYP values 4 ka do not exclude the possibility that other factors may have driven the disappearance of HG populations in Kutch-Saurashtra.en
• dc.description.sponsorship This research has been supported by the SimulPast Project – Consolider Ingenio 2010 (CSD2010-00034, PI M. Madella), funded by the former Spanish Ministry for Science and Innovation (MICINN). AT, BR, CL, NL, MS and XRC have worked on this paper with contracts from the SimulPast project. AB with a contract from the Juan de la Cierva Program, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO).
• dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
• dc.identifier.citation Balbo AL, Rubio-Campillo X, Rondelli B, Ramírez M, Lancelotti C, Torrano A, et al. Agent-based simulation of holocene monsoon precipitation patterns and Hunter-Gatherer population dynamics in semi-arid environments. J Archaeol Method Theory. 2014 Jun;21(2):426-46. DOI: 10.1007/s10816-014-9203-1
• dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10816-014-9203-1
• dc.identifier.issn 1072-5369
• dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/36217
• dc.language.iso eng
• dc.publisher Springer
• dc.relation.ispartof Journal Archaeological Method and Theory. 2014 Jun;21(2):426-46.
• dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/3PN/CSD2010-00034
• dc.rights © Springer The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10816-014-9203-1
• dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
• dc.subject.keyword Archaeology
• dc.subject.keyword Simulation
• dc.subject.keyword Monsoon
• dc.subject.keyword Holocene
• dc.subject.keyword Kutch-Saurashtra
• dc.subject.keyword Gujarat
• dc.subject.keyword India
• dc.title Agent-based simulation of holocene monsoon precipitation patterns and Hunter-Gatherer population dynamics in semi-arid environments
• dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
• dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion