Decomposing changes in first birth trends: quantum, timing, or variance

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• dc.contributor.author Mogi, Ryohei
• dc.contributor.author del Mundo, Michael Dominic
• dc.date.accessioned 2025-03-03T07:26:23Z
• dc.date.available 2025-03-03T07:26:23Z
• dc.date.issued 2020
• dc.description.abstract In high-income countries, women and men born since the 1940s have delayed the birth of their first child, more of them have remained childless, and the timing of the first birth has become more diverse in these cohorts. The interaction between these three trends makes the research on first birth patterns more complex. This study has two main aims: (1) we introduce an alternative index, ExpectedYears Without Children (EYWC), to quantify changes in first birth behaviour; and (2) we decompose the changes in EYWC over time into three effects: remaining permanently childless, postponing the first birth, and the expansion of the standard deviation of the mean age at first birth. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, EYWC is calculated to illustrate time trends among women born in the 1910s–1960s in eight countries with longer series of data on cohort first birthtrends: Canada, the Czech Republic, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States. Our decomposition shows that the changes in EYWC are mainly attributable to postponement in North America and northern Europe, whereas these changes are largely due to increasing shares of women remaining childless in Japan and Portugal.en
• dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
• dc.identifier.citation Mogi R, del Mundo MD. Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance. Vienna Yearb Popul Res. 2020 Dec 12;18:167-84. DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res03
• dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2020.res03
• dc.identifier.issn 1728-4414
• dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/69772
• dc.language.iso eng
• dc.publisher Austrian Academy of Sciences
• dc.relation.ispartof Vienna Yearbook of Population Research. 2020 Dec 12;18:167-84
• dc.rights © The Author(s), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna 2024 This article/book is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) that allows the sharing, use and adaptation in any medium, provided that the user gives appropriate credit, provides a link to the license, and indicates if changes were made.
• dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
• dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• dc.subject.keyword Childlessnessen
• dc.subject.keyword Postponement of first birthen
• dc.subject.keyword Decomposition methoden
• dc.subject.keyword Coale-McNeil modelen
• dc.subject.keyword Life tableen
• dc.title Decomposing changes in first birth trends: quantum, timing, or varianceen
• dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
• dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion