Incidence trends of airflow obstruction among European adults without asthma: a 20-year cohort study

Accordini, Simone; Calciano, Lucia; Marcon, Alessandro; Pesce, Giancarlo; Antó i Boqué, Josep Maria; Beckmeyer-Borowko, Anna B.; Carsin, Anne-Elie; Corsico, Angelo G.; Imboden, Medea; Janson, Christer; Keidel, Dirk; Locatelli, Francesca; Svanes, Cecilie; Burney, Peter; Jarvis, Deborah; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Minelli, Cosetta

Incidence trends of airflow obstruction among European adults without asthma: a 20-year cohort study

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dc.contributor.author Accordini, Simone
dc.contributor.author Calciano, Lucia
dc.contributor.author Marcon, Alessandro
dc.contributor.author Pesce, Giancarlo
dc.contributor.author Antó i Boqué, Josep Maria
dc.contributor.author Beckmeyer-Borowko, Anna B.
dc.contributor.author Carsin, Anne-Elie
dc.contributor.author Corsico, Angelo G.
dc.contributor.author Imboden, Medea
dc.contributor.author Janson, Christer
dc.contributor.author Keidel, Dirk
dc.contributor.author Locatelli, Francesca
dc.contributor.author Svanes, Cecilie
dc.contributor.author Burney, Peter
dc.contributor.author Jarvis, Deborah
dc.contributor.author Probst-Hensch, Nicole
dc.contributor.author Minelli, Cosetta
dc.date.accessioned 2020-04-22T06:55:24Z
dc.date.available 2020-04-22T06:55:24Z
dc.date.issued 2020
dc.description.abstract Investigating COPD trends may help healthcare providers to forecast future disease burden. We estimated sex- and smoking-specific incidence trends of pre-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (AO) among adults without asthma from 11 European countries within a 20-year follow-up (ECRHS and SAPALDIA cohorts). We also quantified the extent of misclassification in the definition based on pre-bronchodilator spirometry (using post-bronchodilator measurements from a subsample of subjects) and we used this information to estimate the incidence of post-bronchodilator AO (AOpost-BD), which is the primary characteristic of COPD. AO incidence was 4.4 (95% CI: 3.5-5.3) male and 3.8 (3.1-4.6) female cases/1,000/year. Among ever smokers (median pack-years: 20, males; 12, females), AO incidence significantly increased with ageing in men only [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 1-year increase: 1.05 (1.03-1.07)]. A strong exposure-response relationship with smoking was found both in males [IRR, 1-pack-year increase: 1.03 (1.02-1.04)] and females [1.03 (1.02-1.05)]. The positive predictive value of AO for AOpost-BD was 59.1% (52.0-66.2%) in men and 42.6% (35.1-50.1%) in women. AOpost-BD incidence was 2.6 (1.7-3.4) male and 1.6 (1.0-2.2) female cases/1,000/year. AO incidence was considerable in Europe and the sex-specific ageing-related increase among ever smokers was strongly related to cumulative tobacco exposure. AOpost-BD incidence is expected to be half of AO incidence.
dc.description.sponsorship ALEC has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [Grant Agreement No. 633212]. The co-ordination of the ECRHS was supported by the European Commission (phases 1 and 2) and the Medical Research Council (phase 3). The SAPALDIA cohort was funded by The State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (SERI), Switzerland. The principal investigators and team members of the ECRHS and SAPALDIA studies, and the national funders who supported data collection in the ECRHS and SAPALDIA studies are listed in the appendix available in the Supplementary Information.
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.identifier.citation Accordini S, Calciano L, Marcon A, Pesce G, Antó JM, Beckmeyer-Borowko AB, Carsin AE, Corsico AG, Imboden M, Janson C, Keidel D, Locatelli F, Svanes C, Burney PGJ, Jarvis D, Probst-Hensch NM, Minelli C. Incidence trends of airflow obstruction among European adults without asthma: a 20-year cohort study. Sci Rep. 2020; 10(1):3452. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-60478-5
dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60478-5
dc.identifier.issn 2045-2322
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/44308
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Nature Research
dc.relation.ispartof Sci Rep. 2020; 10(1):3452
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/633212
dc.rights © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject.keyword Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
dc.subject.keyword Risk factors
dc.title Incidence trends of airflow obstruction among European adults without asthma: a 20-year cohort study
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

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