Eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya: un nou model de pronòstic electoral

Arbós López, Marcel; Loayza Alva, Claudio Fabrizio; Prats Durany, Víctor; Vilà Piñol, Pol; Vilalta Solé, Josep

Eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya: un nou model de pronòstic electoral

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Arbós López, M, Loayza Alva, C, Prats Durany, V, Vilà Piñol, P, Vilalta Solé, J. Eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya: un nou model de pronòstic electoral. 2024. handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10230/69925

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Abstract

If the digital era is known for anything, it’s the ability to gather, analyze, and extract results from large amounts of data. One key use of this data is electoral predictions. This work aimed to propose a new method for estimating election results that would, at the very least, provide a result similar to the one published by an official body. Using the Second Option Model, our object is to achieve a more accurate prediction than the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió for the 12 May elections to the Parliament of Catalonia. This new approach, although using the same database, focused on understanding voters’ second choice and the likelihood of switching from their first to their second choice. This was made possible by three questions included in the CEO’s survey. With the creation of this new model, we aspire to establish a new way of interpreting data that can be extrapolated to any election in any territory, with the intention of getting closer to the reality reflected on election nights.