Inflationary expectations during Germany's great slump
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- dc.contributor.author Voth, Hans-Joachimca
- dc.contributor.other Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa
- dc.date.accessioned 2017-07-26T10:37:54Z
- dc.date.available 2017-07-26T10:37:54Z
- dc.date.issued 1998-11-01
- dc.date.modified 2017-07-23T02:04:03Z
- dc.description.abstract Was the German slump inevitable? This paper argues that -despite the speed and depth of Germany's deflation in the early 1930s - fear of inflation is evident in the bond, foreign exchange, and commodity markets at certain critical junctures of the Great Depression. Therefore, policy options were more limited than many subsequent critics of Brüning's policies have been prepared to admit. Using a rational expectations framework, we find strong evidence from the bond market to suggest fear of inflation. Futures prices also reveal that market participants were betting on price increases. These findings are discussed in the context of reparations and related to the need for a regime shift to overcome the crisis.
- dc.format.mimetype application/pdfca
- dc.identifier https://econ-papers.upf.edu/ca/paper.php?id=333
- dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10230/962
- dc.language.iso eng
- dc.relation.ispartofseries Economics and Business Working Papers Series; 333
- dc.rights L'accés als continguts d'aquest document queda condicionat a l'acceptació de les condicions d'ús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commons
- dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
- dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
- dc.subject.keyword inflation
- dc.subject.keyword great depression
- dc.subject.keyword rational expectations
- dc.subject.keyword uncertainty
- dc.subject.keyword monetary policy
- dc.subject.keyword Economic and Business History
- dc.title Inflationary expectations during Germany's great slumpca
- dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper