The Korean triad: measuring the effectiveness of the inter-Korean peace negotiation

Álvarez Aragonès, Pau

The Korean triad: measuring the effectiveness of the inter-Korean peace negotiation

Citation

Álvarez Aragonès, P. The Korean triad: measuring the effectiveness of the inter-Korean peace negotiation. 2021. handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10230/48268

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Abstract

Since the armistice of July 1953, the fire between both Koreas stopped - yet the war has not officially ended, as there has not been any peace treaty to date. In order to solve this, 2018 marked relevant diplomatic efforts: the first one, between both Koreas, in April 2018 through the Panmunjom Declaration; the second one, between the US and the North, in June 2018 through the Singapore Declaration. Also, in 2019, negotiations re-started in Hanoi, Vietnam. The research question in front of this is: “have the diplomatic summits in 2018 and 2019 been effective towards the development of an inter-Korean peace agreement?”. In order to answer the question, this work has tried to measure the effectiveness of the Summits through the degree of compliance of the main points using three categories as the main ingredients for a peace treaty: security provisions, economic cooperation and identity construction. These three categories will be used to compare the scenario pre-2018 to post-2018 through several indicators: the NTI, the IPUS, the CNS database and others. Through the analysis, we find that in terms of content, the Panmunjom Declaration is more detailed, complete and interdisciplinary than the second. The analysis discloses that diplomatic efforts have not been effective enough, even if the sub-category of sports diplomacy has presented a sustained amelioration.