Working Papers CREI (Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional): Recent submissions

  • Martin, Alberto; Mayordomo, Sergio; Vanasco, Victoria (2023-04-17)
    Many countries implemented large-scale programs to guarantee private credit in response to the outbreak of COVID-19. Yet the role of banks in allocating guarantees – and thus in shaping their effects – is not well understood. ...
  • Boffa, Federico; Mollisi, Vincenzo; Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M. (2023-03)
    Poor performance by the established political class can drive voters towards antiestablishment outsiders. Is the ineffectiveness of incumbent politicians an important driver of the recent rise of populist parties? We provide ...
  • Santamaría, Marta (Santamaría Monturiol); Ventura, Jaume; Yeşilbayraktar, Uğur (2023-02-06)
    We use the new dataset of trade flows across 269 European regions in 24 countries constructed in Santamaría et al. (2020) to systematically explore for the first time trade patterns within and across country borders. We ...
  • Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin (2023-03)
    We study the effects of supply disruptions - for instance due to energy price shocks or the emergence of a pandemic - in an economy with Keynesian unemployment and endogenous productivity growth. By temporarily disrupting ...
  • Ghassibe, Mishel; Zanetti, Francesco (2022-07)
    We develop a general theory of state-dependent fiscal multipliers in a framework featuring two empirically relevant frictions: idle capacity and unsatisfied demand. Our key novel finding is that the source of fluctuations ...
  • Greulich, Ana Katharina; Laczó, Sarolta; Marcet, Albert (2022-08)
    We study optimal Pareto-improving factor taxation when agents are heterogeneous in their labor productivity and wealth and markets are complete. Pareto-improving policies require a gradual reform: labor taxes should be ...
  • Andrade, Philippe; Galí, Jordi, 1961-; Le Bihan, Hervé; Matheron, Julien (2021-04-13)
    We address this question using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model of the Euro Area with trend inflation, imperfect indexation, and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this setup, a decrease in the steady-state ...
  • Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin (2020-03-21)
    As we write, the Covid-19 coronavirus is spreading throughout the globe. Besides its impact on public health, this coronavirus outbreak is likely to have significant economic consequences. The consensus is that the virus ...
  • Benigno, Gianluca; Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin (2022-03)
    We present a model that reproduces two salient facts characterizing the international monetary system: Fast growing emerging countries i) run current account surpluses, ii) accumulate international reserves and receive net ...
  • Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M.; Petrova, Maria; Enikolopov, Ruben (2020-10-07)
    Trade barriers cause substantial deadweight losses, yet they enjoy surprising voter support. We develop an electoral model that accounts for this puzzling popularity of protectionism. Producers have incentives to acquire ...
  • Gennaioli, Nicola; Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M. (2017-01)
    Many real-world contracts contain vague clauses despite the enforcement risk they entail. To study the causes and consequences of this phenomenon, we build a principal agent model in which contracts can include vague clauses ...
  • Broner, Fernando; Didier, Tatiana; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Von Peter, Goetz (2023-03)
    This paper presents novel stylized facts about the rise of the South in global finance using country-to-country data. To do so, the paper assembles comprehensive bilateral data on cross-border bank loans and deposits, ...
  • Benigno, Gianluca; Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin (2021-12)
    Since the late 1990s, the United States has received large capital flows from developing countries - a phenomenon known as the global saving glut - and experienced a productivity growth slowdown. Motivated by these facts, ...
  • Odendahl, Florens; Rossi, Barbara, 1971-; Sekhposyan, Tatevik (2021-07-18)
    We propose a novel forecast evaluation methodology to assess models’ absolute and relative forecasting performance when it is a state-dependent function of economic variables. In our framework, the forecasting performance, ...
  • Inoue, Atsushi; Rossi, Barbara, 1971- (2021-04)
    We propose a new approach to analyze economic shocks. Our new procedure identi es economic shocks as exogenous shifts in a function; hence, we call them "functional shocks". We show how to identify such shocks and how to ...
  • Rossi, Barbara, 1971- (2020-07-31)
    The recent financial crisis led central banks to lower their interest rates in order to stimulate the economy until they hit the zero lower bound. How should one identify monetary policy shocks in unconventional times? ...
  • Rossi, Barbara, 1971- (2021-07)
    This article provides guidance on how to evaluate and improve the forecasting ability of models in the presence of instabilities, which are widespread in economic time series. Empirically relevant examples include predicting ...
  • Hoesch, Lukas; Rossi, Barbara, 1971-; Sekhposyan, Tatevik (2021-07)
    Does the Federal Reserve have an “information advantage” in forecasting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or ...
  • Broner, Fernando; Clancy, Daragh; Erce, Aitor; Martin, Alberto (2021-04)
    This paper explores a natural connection between fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt. Although fiscal expansions can raise domestic economic activity through various channels, they can also have crowding-out ...
  • Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin (2022-09)
    We provide a framework in which monetary policy affects firms’ automation decisions (i.e. how intensively capital and labor are used in production). This new feature has far-reaching consequences for monetary policy. ...

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