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Browsing Working Papers CREI (Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional) by Issue Date

Browsing Working Papers CREI (Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional) by Issue Date

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  • Gennaioli, Nicola; Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M. (2017-01)
    Many real-world contracts contain vague clauses despite the enforcement risk they entail. To study the causes and consequences of this phenomenon, we build a principal agent model in which contracts can include vague clauses ...
  • Schaal, Edouard (2017-05)
    This paper studies the impact of time-varying idiosyncratic risk at the establishment level on aggregate unemployment fluctuations and on the labor market over the period 1972-2009. I build a tractable search-and-matching ...
  • Fajgelbaum, Pablo; Schaal, Edouard; Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu (2019)
    We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty and business cycles in which short-lived shocks can generate long-lasting recessions. In the model, higher uncertainty about fundamentals discourages investment. Since agents ...
  • Andrade, Philippe; Galí, Jordi, 1961-; Le Bihan, Hervé; Matheron, Julien (2019-10-07)
    We study how changes in the steady-state real interest rate (henceforth, r*) affect the optimal inflation target in a New Keynesian DSGE model with trend inflation and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this ...
  • Hauk, Esther; Lanteri, Andrea; Marcet, Albert (2019-11)
    We study optimal policy when the planner has partial information in a general setup where observed signals are endogenous to policy. In this context, signal extraction and policy have to be determined jointly. We derive a ...
  • Fajgelbaum, Pablo; Schaal, Edouard (2019-12)
    We study optimal transport networks in spatial equilibrium. We develop a framework consisting of a neoclassical trade model with labor mobility in which locations are arranged on a graph. Goods must be shipped through ...
  • Broner, Fernando; Bustos, Paula; Carvalho, Vasco M. (2019-12)
    We study the determinants of comparative advantage in polluting industries. We combine data on environmental policy at the country level with data on pollution intensity at the industry level to show that countries with ...
  • Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin (2020-03-21)
    As we write, the Covid-19 coronavirus is spreading throughout the globe. Besides its impact on public health, this coronavirus outbreak is likely to have significant economic consequences. The consensus is that the virus ...
  • Rossi, Barbara, 1971- (2020-07-31)
    The recent financial crisis led central banks to lower their interest rates in order to stimulate the economy until they hit the zero lower bound. How should one identify monetary policy shocks in unconventional times? ...
  • Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M.; Petrova, Maria; Enikolopov, Ruben (2020-10-07)
    Trade barriers cause substantial deadweight losses, yet they enjoy surprising voter support. We develop an electoral model that accounts for this puzzling popularity of protectionism. Producers have incentives to acquire ...
  • Fornaro, Luca (2021-04)
    Since the creation of the euro, capital flows among member countries have been large and volatile. Motivated by this fact, I provide a theory connecting the exchange rate regime to financial integration. The key feature ...
  • Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin (2021-04)
    We study the effects of supply disruptions - for instance caused by the emergence of a pandemic - in an economy with Keynesian unemployment and endogenous productivity growth. By negatively affecting investment, even ...
  • Inoue, Atsushi; Rossi, Barbara, 1971- (2021-04)
    We propose a new approach to analyze economic shocks. Our new procedure identi es economic shocks as exogenous shifts in a function; hence, we call them "functional shocks". We show how to identify such shocks and how to ...
  • Broner, Fernando; Clancy, Daragh; Erce, Aitor; Martin, Alberto (2021-04)
    This paper explores a natural connection between fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt. Although fiscal expansions can raise domestic economic activity through various channels, they can also have crowding-out ...
  • Andrade, Philippe; Galí, Jordi, 1961-; Le Bihan, Hervé; Matheron, Julien (2021-04-13)
    We address this question using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model of the Euro Area with trend inflation, imperfect indexation, and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this setup, a decrease in the steady-state ...
  • Santamaría, Marta; Ventura, Jaume; Yesilbayraktar, Ugur (2021-05)
    Are country borders still an impediment to trade flows within Europe? Using a microlevel survey with 3 million annual shipments of goods, we construct a matrix of bilateral trade for 269 European regions. Take two similar ...
  • Gancia, Gino A.; Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M.; Ventura, Jaume (2021-06)
    This paper develops a theoretical framework to study the interaction between globalization and political structure. We show that political structure adapts in a non-monotonic way to declining transport costs. Borders hamper ...
  • Rossi, Barbara, 1971- (2021-07)
    This article provides guidance on how to evaluate and improve the forecasting ability of models in the presence of instabilities, which are widespread in economic time series. Empirically relevant examples include predicting ...
  • Hoesch, Lukas; Rossi, Barbara, 1971-; Sekhposyan, Tatevik (2021-07)
    Does the Federal Reserve have an “information advantage” in forecasting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or ...
  • Odendahl, Florens; Rossi, Barbara, 1971-; Sekhposyan, Tatevik (2021-07-18)
    We propose a novel forecast evaluation methodology to assess models’ absolute and relative forecasting performance when it is a state-dependent function of economic variables. In our framework, the forecasting performance, ...

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