e-Repositori UPF :: Grau en Economia. Treballs de fi de grau

Enviaments recents

Capital and labour in economic theory: historical conflicts and conceptual shifts
(2025) Mestre Trabal, Eduard
This project examines the evolution of conceptualisations of labour and capital within economic theory, tracing their development from classical political economy through neoclassical economics to post-Keynesian perspectives. Classical economists such as Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and Karl Marx viewed labour and capital as interdependent elements within a historical and social context, with a particular emphasis on the dynamics of accumulation, the distribution of income, and class relations. In contrast, the neoclassical school redefined these concepts within an abstract, ahistorical framework, focusing on individual choice and marginal productivity, which led to the treatment of capital as a homogeneous and measurable factor of production, abstracted from its historical and qualitative characteristics. The Cambridge Capital Controversy challenged this aggregation, highlighting the incommensurability of heterogeneous capital goods and questioning the validity of marginalist theories in explaining income distribution. Post-Keynesian economists, drawing on both classical insights and Cambridge critiques, emphasized the importance of historical specificity, institutional context, and the role of power and conflict in shaping economic outcomes. This paper argues that the revival of classical themes offers a more historically grounded and analytically robust perspective on the labour-capital relationship, thereby enriching the discourse within heterodox economics.
Impact of Trump's 2025 tariff policies on the USD/EUR and its volatility
(2025) Fernández i Sala, Enric; González Afonso, José Antonio; Morales Castaño, Paulo Cesar; Viñas i Tarradas, Jaume
This study investigates the macroeconomic and financial effects of Donald Trump’s 2025 tariff policies on the USD/EUR exchange rate and its volatility. Following Trump’s re-election, the US administration imposed sweeping protectionist measures, triggering significant fluctuations in currency markets. Using an extended IS-LM framework—including Mundell-Fleming and Open IS-MP-PC models—the paper analyzes the theoretical mechanisms linking tariffs to exchange rate dynamics. The study identifies two key phases: a short-lived USD appreciation driven by initial market optimism, followed by a sharp depreciation due to retaliatory tariffs, heightened uncertainty, and rising risk premiums. To complement the theoretical framework, empirical analysis is conducted using time-series forecasting simulations: ARMAX-GARCH, random forests, and boosting, trained on macro-financial data from 1999 to 2025. The forecasts reveal that Trump’s tariff shock led to unusual exchange rate movements considering historical patterns, underscoring the role of expectations, political credibility, and uncertainty in shaping currency behavior. The paper concludes with a discussion on policy implications for the US, the Eurozone, and other major trade partners of the US; and the stability of the global economy.
El paper de la creativitat i les característiques del consumidor dins del neuromàrqueting
(2024-06) Martínez Gallego, Sandra; Martínez Ortiz, Eila
El present treball se centra en l'anàlisi del neuromàrqueting, examinant les seves funcions, les tècniques que empra i els estudis realitzats en aquest àmbit. L’objectiu és estudiar l'impacte de les diverses tècniques de neuromàrqueting sobre les nostres decisions de compra, a més d’identificar els factors o característiques personals intrínseques dels prospectes (clients potencials) que influeixen en la seva sensibilitat a aquestes tècniques. Així doncs, en les següents pàgines presentarem un recull dels punts que hem considerat més importants sobre el neuromàrqueting. Analitzarem tant aspectes teòrics, per posar-nos en context, com casos pràctics, que il·lustren exemples de campanyes exitoses i estudis de neuromàrqueting amb resultats rellevants i, alhora, sorprenents. Els objectius del nostre treball són principalment tres. Primer, informar-nos i documentar-nos sobre el neuromàrqueting per obtenir una visió més clara d’aquesta disciplina. Segon, veure quin és el paper que juga la creativitat en l'efectivitat del neuromàrqueting i com es pot aprofitar per influir en el comportament del consumidor de manera ètica i efectiva, tenint en compte també la IA. Finalment, identificar els factors característics personals/intrínsecs que fan que els consumidors siguin més susceptibles a les estratègies de neuromàrqueting.
Anàlisi i comparativa de la política monetaria de la FED i el BCE durant la pandèmia
(2024-06) Álvarez Muñoz, Carlos; Coll Pi, Marcel; Santos Couto, Daniela; Serratusell Calderón, Óscar
Aquest treball presenta una anàlisi de les principals conseqüènies de la crisi de la Covid-19 a l’eurozona i als Estats Units i quines han estat les respectives respostes del BCE i la FED. Pel cas d’Europa, s’han escollit quatre pa ̈ısos de referència: Alemanya, Espanya, França i Itàlia. Al llarg del treball es mostra quins s ́on els principals objectius dels bancs centrals i com la situaci ́o inicial de les diferents economies condiciona quines són les eines que la política monetària ofereix per fer front a les crisis. Posteriorment, es du a terme una anàlisi gràfica de quina va ser la resposta del BCE i la FED per fer front a la crisi de la Covid-19, examinant quines eines de política monetària es van utilitzar i quin va ser el seu efecte sobre diverses variables macroeconòmiques.
Rough volatility models
(2024-06-06) Sánchez López, Marc
This project examines the limitations of the Black-Scholes model in replicating the empirical properties of real market data and introduces rough volatility models as a superior alternative. The Black-Scholes model assumes normally distributed returns and constant volatility, failing to capture the heavy tails and volatility clustering observed in financial markets, making it unsuitable for accurate option pricing. Because of this, financial practitioners have switched their focus to developing alternatives to traditional models, one being rough volatility models. These models incorporate fractal behavior and rough paths in volatility, demonstrating an improvement in replicating market dynamics. This project aims to analyze models based on rough volatilities through their application in option pricing and the computation of implied volatilities. The results indicate that rough volatility models improve on the shortcomings of the Black-Scholes model.
Greenwashing in the sustainable finance sector in the European Union: scope of the problem and possible solutions for the green energy transition
(2024) Torres Collantes, Alex
In recent years, we have seen how rising global temperatures and increasing inequalities progressively darken our perspective of the future. From human-made climate change to human-made unfairness, the solution to these many challenges does not seem simple. The growing interest by investors for ESG funds, such as those financing new renewable energy projects and technologies, seems to indicate a growing collective will for finding a solution to these problems. However, greenwashing, or the act of lying about one’s own ESG performance, seems to be dampening these efforts on all levels of our society. The present study will seek to analyse the problem of greenwashing in the sustainable finance sector in the European Union, both qualitatively and quantitatively, in order to establish harmonised policy proposals both for public and private market actors that offer an effective solution to this challenge and its effects on the green energy transition.
Exploring unemployment-at-risk
(2024) Lia Ghencea, Alice; Ramírez Arimaha, Esteban; Weber Motilla, Michael
This study fills an important gap in the economic risk literature by extending the growth-at-risk (GaR) framework to the unemployment rate. We examine unemployment-at-risk (UaR) in seven OECD countries over the period 1983–2023 with GARCH and quantile regression type models. Results show that the GARCH(1,1)-ARMA(1,1) model provides the most accurate (conditional) volatility forecasts, and that the conditional volatilities have a particularly strong effect on the upper quantiles of the unemployment rates. When we perform the same analysis across countries, we find that UaR forecasts are country-dependent, being stationary or slightly increasing for the United States and Australia, and higher and more volatile for Portugal and Ireland. The results are important for policymakers interested in smoothing the labor market adjustments in recessions. This innovative use of the GaR framework to the country level for unemployment rates provides useful instruments for economic risk management and policy making.
Macroeconomic insights into demographic shifts
(2024-07) Casas Riu, Roger; Llucià Aguilar, Jan; Planas Calduch, Bernat
This paper aims to conduct a holistic study on the effects of migration inflows received by developed OECD countries. Starting by examining the determinants of the displacement decision of individuals from their source nations, and ending with the quantification of the consequences of such fluxes on aggregate real outcomes for the receiving states. We contribute to the existing research on the topic in each step of our analysis. Firstly, we extend the previously developed theoretical framework modeling the migration decision by allowing time-varying origin-destination country-pair specific effects to also act as drivers of bilateral mobility within territories. Our main innovation at this point, is to empirically test the significance of covariates proxying the presence of previous networks of similar immigrants in host states. Such an inferential procedure is developed via a self-built panel database comprising information for 14 host OECD countries, 64 origin nations, and years from 1995 to 2019. Coefficients on the aforementioned variables are found positive and significant in all of the 12 alternative specifications being calculated. Presenting point estimates robust to distribution assumptions, through computational techniques, also constitutes an original point of this article. The second stage of the developed empirical strategy consists of leveraging semiparametric models to inspect the presence of non-linearities in the first-phase specification. In this sense, significant evidence of the existence of non-parametric effects in the previous baseline statistical equation is also encountered. Finally, the aforementioned formula is leveraged to predict the exogenous (only push-driven) component of migration flows. With such an identified shock, we rely on Local Projections to depict fact-driven impulse-response functions to population dynamics. The concluding findings indicate, overall, a positive reaction of the countries in the sample, in terms of productivity, capital dilution, and per capita output.
The economic convergence of the Spanish regions: a comparative analysis from 2000 to 2022
(2024-06) Gaztañaga Dorronsoro, Amalur
The aim of this research is to examine regional economic convergence in Spain and evaluate the impact of the EU’s cohesion policies in encouraging this convergence from 2000 to 2022. The study utilizes quantitative methods, including Beta and Sigma convergences, to thoroughly examine regional trends in key economic variables like per capita GDP and productivity, assessing intranational convergence.
Mètodes de valoració d’empreses en reestructuracions societàries: anàlisi del cas Celsa
(2024-03-07) Catalan Barat, Albert; Ollé Grau, Maria; Planella i Obach, Albert
El present treball es centra en l’anàlisi dels mètodes de valoració d’empreses en situacions de reestructuració empresarial. Més concretament, es focalitza enla sentència emesa pel Jutjat Mercantil nº 2 de Barcelona del 4 de setembre de 2023, en la qual es va homologar el Pla de Reestructuració proposat pels creditors de l'empresa Celsa. Com a conseqüènciad’aquest Pla, i en base a la nova Llei Concursal 16/2022, la famíliaRubiralta va perdre el control de l’empresa a favor de diversos fons d'inversió, quevaren capitalitzaruna part substancial dels seus crèdits. Així doncs, les següents pàgines concentren els anàlisis dels mètodes de valoració empresarial emprats en el present cas, posant èmfasi en les potencialsimprecisions o inadequacions dels mètodesen el marc d’un procés de reestructuració. Aquest tema és de gran rellevància i no està exempt de controvèrsia, ja que la valoració d'una empresa en un procés judicial pot determinar si els creditors poden assumir el control de la mateixa, en perjudicide l'accionariat anterior.Els objectius del treball són dos. En primer lloc, analitzar si els mètodes de valoració convencionals són aplicables en el context d'empreses en situació de reestructuració i;en segon lloc, avaluar la idoneïtat de les diferents valoracions de l'empresa Celsa durant el procés judicial d'homologació, que va influir en la decisió del jutge de cedir el control de l'empresa als creditors.
Prerequisites for implementation of blockchain technology in enterprise: an empirical study of use cases across industries
(2023-10-11) Garmanova, Vera; Mironov, Mikhail
Blockchain is becoming an important technology of this decade pushing humanity towards the Industrial Revolution 4.0. The last few years have shown that companies have seen significant advantages in the new technology not only for the finance industry, but also for use in various areas of business. This study aims to fill a gap in the research of the types of companies that need to introduce new technology in order to identify an idea of those companies that benefit from changing current business processes in the future. The authors of the current paper studied the TOP-2000 companies from the USA and China as the main competing countries seeking to implement blockchain. The study examined the industries and use cases of blockchain in order to answer the research question: what are the key characteristics of companies that need to change their business model and implement blockchain technology in order to be stable and profitable in the near future? While the types of companies were studied using clustering models, the assumption that only a part of the industry needs to implement a certain type of use cases has been tested within the framework of classification models. The results showed that companies from the financial, entertainment and IT industries need to take a closer look at their competitors and make a possible decision to implement blockchain in their companies in order not to become lagging behind among competitors in the nearest future. Thesis format: academic (empirical).
Conseqüències de la definició de drets de propietat a la data economy: un estudi de l’aplicació del teorema de Coase
(2023-10-16) Casadesús Trofimets, Carina; Casals Escrihuela, Gemma; Ferrer Campo, Belén; Orfila Rovira, Joaquim
El present treball té com a principal objectiu proposar solucions per abordar les externalitats negatives que es produeixen a la Data Economy com les ingerències en la privacitat dels usuaris o l’increment dels riscos en la seguretat digital. Aquestes externalitats generen pèrdues econòmiques i ineficiències en el mercat que han de ser corregides. Agafant com a base el Teorema de Coase, exposem tres solucions alternatives basades en l’atribució de drets de propietat sobre les dades personals: la solució de mercat, la solució d’empresa i la solució de Govern; on s’estudien en detall els avantatges i desavantatges de cada alternativa. Finalment, com a alternativa a l’aplicació del Teorema de Coase a la Data Economy, també analitzem la posible implementació d’un impost pigouvià a les empreses generadores de les externalitats negatives. Finalment, es conclou que les millors alternatives són les solucions d’empresa i de Govern del Teorema de Coase.
Alternatives a un IRPF obsolet
(2023-10-03) Llanes Garcia, Enric; Martín Giró, Enrique
Aquest treball pretén brindar una visió integral de l’impost sobre la renda de les persones físiques a Espanya, destacant-ne la importància com a instrument de finançament estatal i el seu paper en la consecució d’objectius de justícia social i redistribució de la riquesa. A més, espera oferir perspicàcies rellevants sobre la seva estructura. S’hi planteja els conceptes d’un tipus únic i un impost negatiu sobre la renda, com a alternatives al model actual, estudiant el seu impacte econòmic, així com la seva validesa en un entorn canviant. L’anàlisi i la reflexió sobre aquest impost són fonamentals per promoure un sistema tributari equitatiu i eficient que contribueixi al benestar i el desenvolupament sostenible de la societat espanyola.
The distributional implications of a carbon tax in the transportation sector in Barcelona: a micro-econometric simulation analysis of the potential effects on different socio-economic groups and its policy implications
(2023-10-02) Furriol, Lluís; Navarro, Daniel; Pérez, Marc; Pla, Eduard
Climate change and the possible tools to mitigate it have been at the center of public debate for the last decades. One of the most interesting instruments is the carbon tax. Besides its effectiveness, the distributional impact plays an important role when considering introducing this tool. In this study, we do a literature review about the effects of the carbon tax and analyze the potential distributional impact of introducing a carbon tax of 70€ for the ton of CO2 used in the private transportation sector in Barcelona. The study approaches the implementation of a tax on gasoline expenditure, instead of a vehicle tax or a tax on emissions. Using a simplified sample of 1,068 observations of Barcelona households, with different incomes and gasoline expenditures and elasticities depending on their income deciles, we find that the tax is regressive. However, compared with the current environmental policies applied in the capital of Catalonia and the tools to reduce the regressivity of this policy, a carbon tax as proposed on fuel, would end up increasing the progressivity of public intervention in Barcelona.
Statistical and forecasting techniques on financial markets
(2022-06-30) He, Yuanxi
In this project, several steps are taken to analyse and cluster the financial markets’ data. The first part is focused on a brief description of the statistical properties of the time series. Later on, the clustering with the k-Means method, using the rolling four statistical moments, is firstly focused on the NASDAQ index, then to extend the model, several financial products are selected. Moreover, the creation of a strategy based on clusters has been proposed in order to get profit, which has been successful. Finally, ARCH models backed by statistical tests and criteria, using standardized returns, are used to capture the volatility clustering and forecast it, and the GARCH (1,1) was selected among all since it has the most forecast accuracy.
The impact of EU immigration on wages and employment of natives in the UK: an analysis exploiting changes in migration patterns after the Brexit referendum
(2022) Ariño Luque, Pau
After the 2016 UK referendum on EU membership, in which the topic of immigration played a prominent role, net EU migration to the UK dramatically fell. This study aims to exploit this change in migration patterns and empirically analyse the impact of EU immigration on the wages and hours of work of natives in the UK in the period after the referendum. Results indicate that EU immigration has a positive effect on average native wages (and thus an outflow of EU workers after 2016 could have led to a wage decrease), although this effect is unevenly distributed across native skill groups. While those at the upper part of the wage distribution are positively impacted by EU immigration, its effect on the outcomes of low-skill natives is negative, which, given the educational composition of EU immigrants, points to the persistence of considerable downgrading upon arrival.
Jocs olímpics d’hivern Barcelona-Pirineus 2030: l’impacte econòmic a la Val d’Aran
(2022-06) Fernàndez Hernàndez, Marçal
El treball vol tractar de mesurar quin pot ser l’efecte de la candidatura olímpica Barcelona – Pirineus pel proper 2030 a un territori tan particular i singular com la Val d’Aran, diferenciada socioculturalment i pel model econòmic de la resta del Pirineu català. Per fer el treball seran ndispensables les dades que s'han posat damunt la taula per part de la candidatura, els ingressos per entrades, les inversions necessàries i el retorn d’aquestes, entre d’altres; així com els desplaçaments a l’Aran per establir contacte tant amb l’entorn com amb els actors involucrats. Es farà una avaluació a curt i mitjà termini, agafant dades dels efectes posteriors que han tingut altres JJOO d’Hivern aplicant-les a la realitat aranesa i també calculant els increments tant d’ocupació com de guanys econòmics, mitjançant estimacions.
From energy consumer to energy prosumer: a sustainable project for Barcelona
(2022) Puigbó i Camps, Gemma; Sierra Sánchez, Joan; Monzón Holguin, Luis; Ibáñez Torres, Meritxell
In a changing environment such as the current one, in which society is increasingly aware of the environment, while the fossil fuel energy market weakens, it is necessary to move towards an ecological transition in which solar energy plays a fundamental role. For this reason, in this study, not only a quantitative but also a qualitative analysis of the energy market and the installation of solar panels in Barcelona will be carried out - taking into account all its aspects: costs, public and private funding, taxation and subsidies, geographical location, among others - to be able to finally conclude that carrying out this type of project in Barcelona has notable advantages over carrying it out in other places.
The SABR model in financial practice
(2022-07-18) Bragagnini, Iker C.; Colom Cervera, Marc; Moreno Calixto, Iván
The Black-Scholes model fails to reproduce some empirical properties of volatility, from real market data, which means that the model may not be adequate to price certain options. Hence, the financial industry and academia focused on developing alternative models and methods for pricing. One of these models is the SABR model, a stochastic volatility model commonly used in nowadays financial industry. In this project, we aim to analyze and discuss the SABR model from both the theoretical and the practical point of view by motivating the usage of this model and showing how it can be applied in different aspects of the financial practice such as calibration, simulation and numerical methods to obtain implied volatilities. Throughout this analysis and discussion, we also aim to give some insights regarding what practitioners do, to give some sense of the applicability of the model and the methods in the real world.
Asymmetric pricing in the Spanish electricity market
(2022-07-27) Boada Bergadà, Ferran; Gutiérrez Mayordomo, Paula; Pérez Torres, Alba María; Tobías Larrauri, Guillem
This article investigates the extent to which the wholesale electricity market in Spain has price asymmetries in the 2017-2020 period. This phenomenon, known as the Rockets and Feathers effect since its first application in gasoline markets by Bacon in 1991, is analyzed following two different empirical approaches, the non-linear regression used in that article and the lagged differences broadly applied in recent Rockets and Feathers literature like Remer 2015. Besides, this second methodology is divided into different variants depending on the number of lags, and the controls that are taken into account. The study includes data from the main cost fluctuation sources in the period for the technologies involved in overall production, and no other papers have discussed this hypothesis in the Spanish daily electricity case to the best of our knowledge. Our estimations conclude that no asymmetric pricing can be proved significantly through any of the two analyses.

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Enviaments recents