e-Repositori UPF :: Student Paper Series (IBEI)

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Unveiling the drivers: a multidimensional analysis of the determinants shaping the European Union’s global gateway initiative
(2023) Abeledo Vilariño, Lucas Ignacio
Little is known about the emergence of the EU Global Gateway Initiative. Some argue that it is a geo-political challenge to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, while others claim that it satisfies an existing demand for infrastructure funding. This dissertation uncovers the relevant determinants in the emergence of Global Gateway. Using global governance as a theoretical framework and a case study research design, it argues that the EU economy, the global demand for infrastructure funding, and the geo-political challenge from China are the main determinants in the emergence of Global Gateway. It also discards the role of less-considered determinants, such as the leadership of Ursula von der Leyen, in the emergence of the Initiative. In doing so, this dissertation confirms a number of hypotheses established through the literature review and chosen theoretical framework, which offer broader insights into the emergence of Global Initiatives. It also opens avenues for future research, while staying conscious of potential limitations.
In the eye of the storm: gendered impacts of climate change in Africa
(2023) Morales Chinea, Ainhoa
This dissertation explores the climate change and gender inequality nexus with a focus on Africa. The research question is: Is climate change likely to exacerbate gender inequality across countries and time? The two complementary hypotheses are H1: Countries with higher climate change impacts will show greater gender inequality than those with lower climate change impacts; and H2: The intensity of the impact of climate change on gender inequality increases over time. To test such hypotheses, I employ a multiple cross-country regression model. The study examines various dimensions of gender inequality circa 2010 and circa 2019. The dependent variables are the reproductive health index and the gender gaps in average years of schooling, enrollment rates, and labor force participation. Independent variables include disaster frequency (accumulated over 10 years), GDP per capita, agricultural dependency, dependency ratio, urbanization rate, extreme poverty rate, and civil wars. I formulate a core model with these variables, augmented models with additional variables and perform robustness checks. The key findings reveal that disaster frequency counterintuitively narrows the average years of schooling gap, while it worsens reproductive health. Additionally, agricultural dependency and the dependency ratio emerge as significant factors influencing most dimensions of gender inequality. Extreme poverty, GDP per capita, and civil wars also have explanatory power for certain gender inequality variables.
The Cентябрьский: exit, voice, and the consequences of mobilisation in Putin’s Russia
(2023) Willoughby, Arthur
On the 21st of September 2022, Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilisation of Russian reservists to support his ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine. For hundreds of thousands of young men eligible for conscription, the news sparked an immediate decision to emigrate. The idea of protesting against the decision within Russia no longer seemed viable. Exit, for them, had become a necessity. Drawing on the framework of Hirschman’s (1970) Exit, Voice, and Loyalty, I ask how the Hirschmanian model applies to the September 2022 migratory wave from Russia. My research builds upon nine interviews I conducted in late 2023 with the Sentyabrsky (сентябрьский), a term I introduce to Western literature to denote the September relocants, that is, the collective of predominantly young men who fled Russia in the wake of the 2022 conscription announcement. First providing a taxonomy of the Sentyabrsky, I assess the interplay of their emigration with political voice across the Russian world. Ultimately, I argue that the mass emigration of this politically engaged class, in tandem with the increasingly repressive policies of state authorities, has significantly diminished the prospects for reform in Putin’s Russia. Exit, just as Hirschman would suggest, has subdued the voices against the war in Ukraine; because, for many of the Sentyabrsky, the hope of return means that outspoken opposition remains a dangerous prospect. In such a way, mobilisation might be seen as an invaluable tool in ensuring domestic loyalty for ongoing conflicts.
From autocrats to democrats: a comparative analysis of authoritarian successor parties and democratic acceptance in Spain, Panama, and Myanmar
(2023) Harty, Michael
Political parties often emerge from authoritarian regimes that contend democratic elections following transitions to democracy. However, the behavior that these parties display in regard to democratic acceptance varies, ranging from working to reestablish authoritarian rule to accepting democracy and becoming important democratic actors. This study seeks to account for this variation in behavior by identifying the conditions under which these parties, known as authoritarian successor parties (ASPs), accept democracy. It conducts a comparative analysis using Mill’s Method of Agreement for two cases in which ASPs have accepted democracy and have become major democratic actors: the Alianza Popular/Partido Popular in Spain and the Partido Revolucionario Democrático in Panama. It then applies Mill’s Method of Difference to compare these results with the case of the Union Solidarity and Development Party in Myanmar, which has played a role in autocratization. The study finds that economic incentives for democracy, the level of support for democracy and relevance of domestic political actors (i.e. civil society, opposition parties, the military), and the level of international influence for democracy are determinant factors in ASP acceptance of democracy, while public support for democracy is not a determinant factor.
Preferential trade agreements: an effective policy tool in climate change governance?
(2022) Weber, Katharina
This dissertation explores the nexus between environmental provisions in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) and greenhouse gas emissions. It aims to shed some light on the inconclusive debate of issue linkage in PTAs as a policy instrument in climate change. Using a mixed-method approach, the study examines (1) whether environmental provisions in PTAs lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of trading partners, and (2) how the design and legal nature of climate provisions influence their effectiveness. The empirical analysis is conducted using data for 184 countries over a time frame from 1990-2019. A case study on the US-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement explores the mechanisms through which PTAs take effect. The study finds that countries which include numerous environmental provisions in PTAs will tend to reduce per capita GHG emissions compared to those without environmental provisions. Provisions explicitly targeted at climate change appear especially effective. The study adds new findings to the yet small body of literature by identifying long-term effects on trading partners' emissions. It finds PTAs to be an effective tool in climate governance due to their enforceability. They can take effect through changes in domestic law and through fostering civil society activity.
Contested labels: the operationalization of the IDP category in south Sudan
(2022) Gonzalez Tejero, Debora
Similar in shape to the ‘are refugees migrants’ debate, recent years have seen an emerging discussion about the relationship between the ‘IDP’ and ‘refugee returnee’ labels. The use of labels is known to be problematic yet continues to play a prominent role in policymaking and the humanitarian field. Drawing on an analysis of 20 interviews with professionals working for international organisations engaged in humanitarian operations and a variety of written contents, this paper investigates how, why and with which consequences the IDP population category has been operationalized and contested. A case study from South Sudan, where the debate about the relationship between the IDP and returning refugee labels played a significant role from 2019 onwards, shows that a number of factors shape this debate, including mandates, funding competition and donor structures, organisational politics, the role of individuals and political interests. The research findings suggest that labelling brings unintended consequences, beyond the stated goal of addressing needs in a better targeted manner. An over-reliance on labels as primary indicator of needs in status-based responses and the fragmentation of labels into increasingly competing, rather than nested entities, risks doing harm and constitutes a disservice to the affected populations. The research does not advocate to dismiss labels altogether, but encourages a much more critical engagement with how, why and for whom different labels are employed, along with a needs-based reorientation in the planning and implementation of humanitarian response operations.
Understanding care in the new normal: a correlation analysis of care after covid-19 in Colombia
(2022) Quevedo, Alejandra
This research aims to explore the medium-term impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the care burden, particularly to understand the new challenges that women face to motivate policy work. The pandemic has highlighted the importance of care, however it also made evident the gender gap in care and the need to address it. The research question “to what extent did the Covid-19 pandemic increase the care burden and what factors influence this change?” is addressed using data from Colombia from 2019 till 2022 to show descriptive statistics and conduct a correlation analysis. The results show an increase in the care burden after the pandemic and a growing gender gap in this area. The correlation analysis shows that working and work hours are negatively correlated with care. Education is negatively correlated with dedicating most of the time to domestic work and hours dedicated to domestic, but positively correlated with doing care tasks. Subsidies are positively correlated with care, but mainly because they are targeted at the most vulnerable segments and do not influence a relief to the care burden. This research sheds light on the importance of care and the need to recognize, revalue, and redistribute care in our societies. The findings underscore the need for policies that promote gender equality. This research provides a basis for future research on the care economy and its relationship with labor and poverty to create care policies that are effective.
Detaching data: an exploration of the trend in the amount of events prior to conflict onset
(2022) Kripka, Vicente Constantino
This study investigates the relationship between real-world events and conflict onset, focusing on the quantity and pattern of these events over time. As the generation and collection of data has seen a significant increase in recent years, understanding the potential of real-world event data is crucial aiding decision-making during conflict. The initial analysis reveals a substantial increase in the number of such events leading up to conflict, despite periodic fluctuations over the years. Moreover, the research identifies a greater occurrence of these events in the days preceding conflict compared to regular days. Importantly, the study also establishes a significant positive relationship between the interaction of population and GDP and the frequency of events both prior to conflict and during regular days. These findings suggest that shifts in population and GDP have a direct impact on the volume of real-world events. By shedding light on these patterns, this research can aid in the development of more informed decision-making strategies during conflict situations.
When the hawks fly high: analyzing the evolution of attitudes towards China in the US congress since 2008
(2022) Delgado Perez, Victor
US-China relations are one of the most complex issues in global politics. Scholars agree that in the past decade US’ China policy has undergone a massive transformation: from seeing the PRC as a ‘partner’ to be engaged with, to labeling China as a ‘threat’ that the US must out-compete. There is also a consensus among scholars that, while Chinese policy vis-á-vis the US has always been long-term, the US has often been excessively reactive towards Chinese revisionism. However, most accounts of US’ China policy in the literature focus exclusively on the executive branch, often ignoring Congress’ diverse abilities and initiatives to influence the President’s foreign policy. This thesis seeks to address that gap in the literature by examining the evolution of congressional attitudes towards China since the 2008 financial crisis. This event is intentionally picked as a starting point of the analysis, since the literature considers it a defining moment in contemporary US-China relations. The thesis contemplates different avenues of influence from Congress to shape policy: legislation, congressional hearings in relevant committees, formal powers of advice and consent in the Senate, and swaying public opinion through informal channels. Overall, the thesis confirms that there was a drastic paradigm shift in congressional attitudes starting in the 115th Congress (2016-17), in which lawmakers became increasingly willing to exert their powers to shape policy vis-á-vis China. More importantly, it shows that the common-shared notion of US’ China policy being mostly ‘reactive’ is not sustained when looking at the legislature, which has often proposed changes in policy direction before the executive branch picked up those initiatives. This shift in attitudes is found to be independent of party affiliation and transversal in a myriad of policy areas (e.g., human rights, trade and technology, military issues), and committees (e.g., HFAC, HASC, SFRC, HFSC, SPSCI, etc.).
Innovative claims-making and media diffusion: the case of Mexico City’s anti-monuments
(2020) Burger, Lona Marie Lauridsen
Since 2015, seven large metal structures, termed ‘anti-monuments’ (antimonumentos), have been placed by various civil society actors in Mexico City. Each commemorates a distinct grievance linked to claims of state culpability or inaction. They are atypical of other protest tactics in that they have largely been tolerated by public actors and, seemingly, celebrated by the news media. This study aims to determine the extent to which media coverage has reproduced their claims and contributed to their perceived legitimacy. To answer these questions, the research is theoretically informed by literature from critical policy analysis and social movement studies. While the case study uses a variety of methods, the core empirical analysis relies on qualitative content analysis of 72 articles published by Mexican newspapers since the emergence of the phenomenon (2015-2020). The findings are divided into three principal categories: visibility of claims, resonance, and legitimacy. The results indicate that, in contrast to coverage of other protest actions, the anti-monuments have been profoundly successful in diffusing their claims and gaining favourable media coverage. Although the literature suggests that the media is unlikely to favour the transmission of collective action frames, this tactical innovation was able to unlock a formula for effective media uptake. The text concludes with a discussion of plausible explanatory factors and the broader social and policy implications of these observations. This research is of relevance beyond the case itself and could serve to inform theorization on the relationship between contested claims-making and media diffusion.
Exploring the effects of foreign partisan election intervention on corruption
(2020) Reimal, Emily
Foreign partisan election intervention is a persistent tactic that may become increasingly prevalent as technological advancements and the growth of social media facilitate new low-cost, yet effective mechanisms for intervention. Despite expansive documentation of numerous cases of foreign partisan election intervention, there has been little systematic research on its effects, largely due to lack of sufficient data. This paper leverages the recently published Partisan Electoral Interventions by the Great Powers dataset to contribute to filling this gap. Specifically, this paper is an exploration of the effects of foreign partisan election intervention on changes in corruption levels. I hypothesize that because elections are important accountability mechanisms, tampering with them via foreign partisan intervention can facilitate the growth of corruption in targeted states. In particular, covert interventions typically require cooperation between the intervener and the beneficiary, and so they support politicians who are willing to engage in illicit activity to attain power who may be more likely to engage in corruption once in office. Election interventions can propel these candidates into office as challengers or shield corrupt incumbents from consequences and allow them to retain power. I find that successful covert intervention slightly increases the likelihood of corruption growth, with larger effects when the intervention benefits a challenger, and when the targeted state has a relatively low level of democracy.
‘(Non-)Intervention is always for someone and for some purpose’: a critical theory analysis on the principle of non-interference within ASEAN
(2020) Lengeling, Isabelle
Despite its centrality for the organisation, the approach of ASEAN member states towards the Principle of Non-Interference has not been consistent ever since the foundation in 1967. So far, the existing scholarship has not been able to provide a comprehensive explanation for the complex reality surrounding the exercise and uses of non-interference. Acknowledging this, the paper first aims at understanding the weaknesses of existing theoretical approaches and why they differ so strongly. The main reasons identified are their ontological and epistemological assumptions that lead them to misunderstand the Principle as a static concept. Subsequently, drawing on ideas of Strydom (2011) and Cox (2012) contemporary Critical Theory is tested as an alternative to the existing approaches in the context of a plausibility probe using the case of Myanmar between 2007 and 2020. The meta-level application of contemporary CT reveals that the pathologies concerning the realisation of the sociopractical idea of sovereignty are the consequence of a disregard for the duality of sovereignty and actions beyond the official state level. Meanwhile, the identification of those is considered to contain the potential for transforming this realisation of the socio-practical idea of sovereignty. Both factors seemingly have been given rise by a complex mechanism shaped by implicit socio-cultural background assumptions, historically developed pragmatism, and capitalism. Based on these findings, it is argued that contemporary CT might be better suited than existing approaches to account for the complex reality surrounding the Principle and a full-scale application is suggested for future research.
Why do countries develop harm reduction programs?: a mixed methods approach
(2020) Brozdowski, Jonathan
This thesis investigates why and how countries develop drug harm reduction programs today. Though they began as a controversial set of ideas challenging global drug policy’s dominant interdiction model, they have evolved over decades of mobilization around HIV and become a global social policy in many ways spearheaded by international organizations in its “medicalized” form. Drawing on understanding of complex multilateralism and the Advocacy Coalition Framework, this thesis uses an ordered probit regression analysis and a structured focused comparison of two countries to investigate harm reduction’s development. Based on the dataset by Harm Reduction International (HRI) noting the presence or absence of seven programs in 165 countries, analysis found measures of participatory and egalitarian governance to be especially important. Kenya and Cameroon were chosen for case study through Mill's Method of Difference, as a deviant, successful case and as a typical, unsuccessful case, with substantial similarity in important factors except for the chosen variable of interest: civil society participation in government. It concludes that international involvement, civil society mobilization, and government cooperation with CSOs are especially important to harm reduction’s development. In addition to being the first quantitative study and the first comparative case study on the specific factors that lead a country to develop harm reduction programs, this paper offers insight into global governance by showing how a global social policy can transcend national laws and be in some ways implemented by international actors.
Impact of the Salud Mesoamerica Initiative on adolescent pregnancy in Costa Rica: new evidence on multisectoral interventions
(2020) Sánchez, Isabel
To address the high rates of adolescent pregnancy and reduce its difficult consequences on young mothers and their children, the Costa Rican government (with the support of IDB) implemented in 2013 the Salud Mesoamerica Initiative (SM) in the most vulnerable regions. This program focuses on an improvement in the access and quality of sexual and reproductive health for adolescents. Additionally, the strategy includes strong coordination with multiple public sectors, such as education, nutrition and childcare, and child welfare. According to the literature on the causes of adolescent pregnancy and the policy evidence, the design of SM promises to be highly effective. In fact, international organizations’ last recommendations encourage the implementation of multisectoral programs as an integrated response to prevent this issue. However, this approach is rarely implemented and although there is some evaluation analysis, the evidence is still limited. This study examines the impact of SM by comparing the improvements in adolescent pregnancy and risk factors in the areas with and without the intervention, using differences in differences analysis. The results suggest that SM had a positive impact as the treated areas had greater reductions in these indicators than the rest of the country. These findings increase the evidence available on the impact of multisectoral programs and offers a first evaluation of SM in Costa Rica.
Responding to a global pandemic: a comparative analysis of New Zealand, Taiwan and the United Kingdom
(2020) Dini, Giovanni
The ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic has proven that most States were unprepared and complacent in the face of the imminent epidemic threat that epidemiologists had long warned of. The COVID-19 pandemic confounded the expectations of public policy analysts and epidemiologists alike in terms of which States would fail in their response and which would succeed. This dissertation seeks to identify the causes behind the varying degrees of success or failure initial policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, it employs a Mill’s Method of difference to compare the two successful cases of Taiwan and New Zealand and the failure case of the United Kingdom. The key result, found by applying Rubin and Bækkeskov’s expert-led securitisation theoretical framework, is that the two successful responses were guided by independent and transparent scientific advisories or semi-autonomous technocratic authorities and the failure case had a politicised scientific advisory that lacked both independence and transparency.
Exploring persistent policy practices: Germany’s dispersal policy and the accommodation of asylum seekers
(2019) Pascucci, Hannah
This dissertation analyzes the apparent tension between the German dispersal policy practice and the allocation and accommodation of asylum seekers. Within the context of the 2015 ‘summer of welcome’, Germany received the highest number of asylum applications not only in its own history, but also in European history. Consequently, it is facing the challenge of accommodating and integrating more than 1.2 million asylum seekers in the coming years. While the practice of dispersal of asylum seekers is based on the Königsteiner Key in line with the discourse of fair and equal distribution and therefore sharing the social and economic burden caused by the cost of accommodation and integration, there seems to be a tension when regarding the limited possibility of providing adequate housing and accommodation. Drawing from experience and fieldwork in Freiburg, a mid-size city with an overwhelmingly green and progressive political orientation in the German federal state of Baden- Württemberg, this thesis, using the Neo-Gramscian understanding of common sense à la Bruff, demonstrates how a persistent common sense logic on equally dispersing asylum seekers is creating tension with the need of accommodating them. By analyzing how and why historically synthesized common sense rooted with the practice of dispersion is locally sedimented and manifest in the accommodation of asylum seekers in Freiburg, this analysis provides a critical understanding of the systemic relationality between dispersal and accommodation and the tension created.
Estimating the effect of (mobile)banking coverage on installed off-grid solar photovoltaic capacities in countries of sub-Saharan Africa
(2019) Bähr, Tobias
Affordable access to electricity has long been found to be a key lever for social and economic development. Over 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) still lacked such in 2016. Given the pertaining issues in grid extension, off-grid solar photovoltaic (PV) applications promise a cheap and scalable way to provide those households without access to the grid with electricity. Research on the diffusion of solar PV applications and other renewable sources of energy suggests, that a lack of financing options and access to financial services poses a hurdle for households to invest into such technologies. The success of off-grid solar PV applications across SSA over the past years coincides with a surge of mobile bank accounts. This dissertation attempts to answer the question, if the diffusion of solar PV applications was impacted by an increased access to financial services through traditional and/or mobile bank accounts. To do so, data on installed solar PV capacities and the percentage of the population using traditional or mobile bank accounts across 38 countries of sub-Saharan Africa in 2011, 2014 and 2017 are analyzed in two cross-sectional regression models. The findings suggest that a 1% increase in the percentage of the population owning a bank account increases installed solar PV capacities between 0.15 MW for any bank account in 2014 and 0.44 MW for mobile bank accounts in 2017. However, these results display a high degree of uncertainty, which is mainly related to issues of data availability as well as potentially omitted variables in the employed models. More research is required to overcome uncertainty and potentially unravel causal mechanisms at play in order to inform policy makers and development agencies about the potential win-win combination of mobile bank accounts and off-grid electrification.
Micro-level motivations of combatants in inter communal conflicts: a look into the case of Jabal Mohsen and Bab al-Tabbaneh
(2019) Williams, Andréanne
The micro-level determinants of fighting is a growing research topic. However, little research has been done on the reasons why people take part in communal violence, which I define as violence between non-state groups that are mobilized along a shared communal identity. This research attempts at filling this gap by looking into the micro-dynamics of violence through a case study of the conflict between the neighborhoods of Jabal Mohsen and Bab al-Tabbaneh in Tripoli, Lebanon. This area has seen more than 20 rounds of clashes between Sunni and Shia communities between 2008 and 2014, which have left hundreds of dead and wounded. The research draws on interviews with 13 former combatants from both neighborhoods. In line with expectations on motivations from the civil war literature, I find that financial incentives, sectarian grievances and religious motivations as well as self-defense are important motivations. However, the findings also go beyond the ‘rational violence’ framework and highlight the importance of the psychological functions of violence. The interviews show that the desire to gain respect from the community, to be seen like a man and thrill-seeking are important drivers. Identifying motivations for communal violence is a novel contribution to research on political violence.
Causes of ethnic unrest in China: the cases of Xinjiang, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia
(2019) Domingo Bartolí, Marta
By analyzing the cases of Xinjiang, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia, three Autonomous Regions of the People’s Republic of China, this dissertation attempts to answer the following question: When do states’ ethnic assimilation policies cause ethnic unrest? These regions have historically been populated by the non-Han ethnic groups of Uyghurs, Tibetans, and Mongols, respectively. Xinjiang and Tibet are wellknown for their ethnic unrest, while Inner Mongolia has remained relatively free of it since China’s economic liberalization in the 1980s. Mongols, unlike Uyghurs and Tibetans, largely seem to have assimilated into Han culture. This dissertation has identified four factors that contribute to the existence of ethnic unrest, or its lack, in the three Autonomous Regions: the presence of a strong religious identity tied to ethnicity, ethnic market segregation, a strong extranational community supporting the ethnic group, and, especially, the demographic share of the ethnicity in the region.
Increasing freedoms in Sao Paulo : promoting development through decentralization and participation
(2018) Jacon, Caio Cesar Paccola
Decentralization and participation have been advocated by international organizations as a means for achieving development. They would do so my approximating government and citizens, allowing the latter to decide on matters that directly affect their lives. Existing literature endorses these claims by suggesting decentralization and participation can improve the quality of local democracies and yield better public policy outcomes. But in what conditions do decentralization and participation actually lead to development? To answer this question, this paper has reviewed the literature on the links between decentralization, participation and development through the lenses of Amartya Sen’s “development as freedom” concept, trying to show how the freedoms enjoyed by citizens can be increased. This dissertation has explored four policies implemented in the city of São Paulo: participatory budget, sub-prefectures, municipal health system, and urban planning. São Paulo was chosen because it enjoys high levels of decentralization and has experimented with participatory institutions rarely seen in other cities of similar size. The findings show that São Paulo's participatory institutions were highly affected by oscillating political support and unequal civil society mobilization. However, some institutional designs were able to partly overcome these challenges. Overall, we found that São Paulo’s decentralized participatory institutions helped improve political freedoms and transparency guarantees in the city, improving the quality of its local democracy. We found little evidence on their effect on public policy outcomes in São Paulo, but further research could fill that gap.

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