Cappello, LorenzoMadrid Padilla, Oscar Hernan2025-05-082025-05-082025Cappello L, Madrid Padilla OH. Bayesian variance change point detection with credible sets. IEEE Trans Pattern Anal Mach Intell. 2025 Jun;47(6):4835-52. DOI: 10.1109/TPAMI.2025.35480120162-8828http://hdl.handle.net/10230/70335Includes supplementary materials for the online appendix.This paper introduces a novel Bayesian approach to detect changes in the variance of a Gaussian sequence model, focusing on quantifying the uncertainty in the change point locations and providing a scalable algorithm for inference. We do that by framing the problem as a product of multiple single changes in the scale parameter. We fit the model through an iterative procedure similar to what is done for additive models. The novelty is that each iteration returns a probability distribution on time instances, which captures the uncertainty in the change point location. Leveraging a recent result in the literature, we can show that our proposal is a variational approximation of the exact model posterior distribution. We study the convergence of the algorithm and the change point localization rate. Extensive experiments in simulation studies and applications to biological data illustrate the performance of our method.application/pdfeng© 2025 The Authors. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.info:eu-repo/semantics/article2025-05-08http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TPAMI.2025.3548012Structural breaksVariational inferenceLocalization rateApproximate inferenceinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess