Desmet, KlausKopp, Robert E.Kulp, Scott A.Nagy, David KrisztiánOppenheimer, MichaelRossi-Hansberg, EstebanStrauss, Benjamin H.2021-04-062021-04-062021Desmet K, Kopp RE, Kulp SA, Nagy DK, Oppenheimer M, Rossi-Hansberg E, Strauss BH. Evaluating the economic cost of coastal flooding. American Economic Journal: macroeconomics. 202;13(2):444–86. DOI: 10.1257/mac.201803661945-7707http://hdl.handle.net/10230/47022Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent in present value terms. By the year 2200, a projected 1.46 percent of the population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11 percent to 4.5 percent. (JEL E23, F01, Q54, Q56)application/pdfeng© American Economic Association. Can be found at https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180366info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180366Quantitative economic geographyEconomic growth and developmentClimate changeMacroeconomics and International Economicsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess