Ciccone, AntonioUniversitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa2017-07-262017-07-262008-08-01American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3 (4), 215-227, 2011http://hdl.handle.net/10230/531Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t-1 and t-2. I argue that this finding is driven by a positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t-2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, one might have expected MSS s finding to reflect a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t-1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall.application/pdfengL'accés als continguts d'aquest document queda condicionat a l'acceptació de les condicions d'ús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commonsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPapertransitory shocksmean reversionrainfallcivil conflict.Macroeconomics and International Economicsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess