Hogarth, Robin M.Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa2020-05-252020-05-252006-05-01In P. M. Todd, G. Gigerenzer, & The ABC Research Group (Eds.), Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world. Oxford: Oxford University Presshttp://hdl.handle.net/10230/1034It is well accepted that people resist evidence that contradicts their beliefs. Moreover, despite their training, many scientists reject results that are inconsistent with their theories. This phenomenon is discussed in relation to the field of judgment and decision making by describing four case studies. These concern findings that clinical judgment is less predictive than actuarial models; simple methods have proven superior to more theoretically correct methods in times series forecasting; equal weighting of variables is often more accurate than using differential weights; and decisions can sometimes be improved by discarding relevant information. All findings relate to the apparently difficult-to-accept idea that simple models can predict complex phenomena better than complex ones. It is true that there is a scientific market place for ideas. However, like its economic counterpart, it is subject to inefficiencies (e.g., thinness, asymmetric information, and speculative bubbles). Unfortunately, the market is only correct in the long-run. The road to enlightenment is bumpy.application/pdfengL'accés als continguts d'aquest document queda condicionat a l'acceptació de les condicions d'ús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commonsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperdecision makingjudgmentforecastinglinear modelsheuristicsBehavioral and Experimental Economicsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess